The year 2024 has seen its fair share of aviation disasters, prompting concerns among travelers. A series of high-profile accidents, including the tragic crashes of Azerbaijan Airlines in Kazakhstan and Jeju Air in South Korea, have shaken public confidence. With over 200 lives lost in just a few days, many are left wondering: is flying becoming unsafe?
However, despite these distressing incidents, it’s important to put air travel safety into context. Aviation experts argue that the industry’s safety record continues to improve, even in the wake of a year marked by several high-profile crashes.
The year began with a chilling incident in Tokyo, where a fiery crash involving a Japan Airlines plane led to the tragic deaths of five Japan Coast Guard members. Fortunately, all passengers on board survived. A few days later, an Alaska Airlines flight departing from Portland, Oregon, experienced a serious emergency when part of the plane fell off during takeoff, creating a gaping hole in the fuselage. Miraculously, all 177 passengers survived the emergency landing.
The summer saw the tragic loss of a Voepass flight in Brazil, claiming the lives of 62 people. In addition, reports of severe turbulence on flights leading to injuries and even fatalities, such as on a Singapore Airlines flight have compounded fears.
According to the Aviation Safety Network, 2024 became the deadliest year in aviation since 2018, with 318 fatalities. The significant media coverage of these incidents has led to increased scrutiny of air travel safety, but does this mean that flying is less safe than it used to be?
Dr. Hassan Shahidi, President and CEO of the Flight Safety Foundation, provides a perspective that helps contextualize these recent tragedies. “In 2023, there were zero commercial jet fatalities,” he explains. “In 2024, the aviation industry transported 5 billion passengers worldwide. Until recently, 2024 was on track to repeat the safety record of the previous year.”
Research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) confirms that flying has never been safer. Between 2018 and 2022, the odds of dying in an aviation accident were 1 in 13.7 million an improvement from 1 in 7.9 million between 2008 and 2017, and a dramatic reduction from the 1 in 350,000 risk between 1968 and 1977.
While flying is undeniably safer, human error still plays a significant role in aviation accidents. Research from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Academy reveals that human error contributes to up to 80% of aviation accidents, with pilot mistakes responsible for 53% of incidents. Mechanical failures, while still a concern, are responsible for only 21% of accidents.
Accidents are most likely to occur during takeoff and landing, with the two recent crashes in December 2024 happening during the landing phase. The Jeju Air crash, for example, involved damage to an engine after a bird strike, and reports suggest that the plane’s landing gear was not deployed when the aircraft touched down. Investigations are ongoing, and while the exact cause of the crash is yet to be determined, this serves as a reminder of the complexity of aviation safety.
The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan is a stark reminder of the risks posed by flying through conflict zones. Initial reports suggest that the aircraft may have been struck by Russian air defenses, causing depressurization and loss of control. This incident brings to mind the 2014 Malaysia Airlines disaster, where a plane was downed by a surface-to-air missile while flying over eastern Ukraine.
To mitigate such risks, the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) provides warnings to airlines operating in conflict zones, though it cannot mandate airspace closures. While some airlines have ceased flying through Russian airspace, others, including those from Middle Eastern and Asian countries, continue to do so, despite the risks.
One silver lining in the aftermath of aviation disasters is that each tragedy leads to improvements in safety. Following the crashes, investigators recover vital data from the black boxes (Flight Data Recorders and Cockpit Voice Recorders) to piece together what went wrong. This information is crucial in preventing similar incidents in the future.
Each accident, no matter how tragic, provides valuable lessons. From the Grand Canyon collision of 1956 to the changes in fuel systems following the TWA Flight 800 explosion in 1996, aviation safety has continually evolved in response to disasters. The September 11 attacks led to the creation of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has led to real-time tracking of all aircraft.
As Janet Northcote from EASA states, “Whenever a tragedy occurs, we analyze what happened and take appropriate action to ensure that the same type of accident will not happen again.”
While 2024 has certainly been a challenging year for the aviation industry, the overall trend in air travel safety remains positive. Every incident leads to deeper analysis, improved systems, and stronger safety protocols, ensuring that flying becomes safer with each passing year.
Despite the headlines, air travel is still the safest mode of transportation. With continued vigilance, collaboration between manufacturers, airlines, and regulators, and the lessons learned from past tragedies, flying remains a remarkably safe way to travel.
