From prolonged droughts across Southern Africa and Central America to devastating rainfall in Spain and the ferocity of Hurricane Helene along the U.S. East Coast, 2024 has been a year of eye-opening extreme weather events. These phenomena have impacted billions, highlighting the growing urgency to understand and adapt to our changing climate.
A groundbreaking study published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences by Dr. Wenxia Zhang and her team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences explores the defining characteristics of 2024’s most notable climate extremes. The study delves into the causes of these events, the influence of global warming, and the pressing need for climate resilience in the face of growing unpredictability.
The study identifies the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a significant driver behind many of this year’s extreme rainfall and drought events. ENSO, a natural climate pattern, was particularly influential during the winter of 2023/2024. However, the report underscores that ENSO alone cannot account for the severity and frequency of these events.
Dr. James Risbey of CSIRO, a co-author, points out that while natural weather patterns play a role, human-induced climate change has exacerbated these extremes. “Anthropogenic warming increases atmospheric moisture and evaporation rates, intensifying both rainfall and drought conditions,” he explains.
The field of extreme event attribution has become crucial in linking specific events to human-induced climate change. The findings reveal that global warming often amplifies the intensity and socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather, such as the floods in Valencia or Hurricane Helene’s deadly path along the U.S. coast.
However, gaps remain in accurately attributing these events. Inconsistencies between observed and modeled extremes—particularly in rainfall patterns challenge researchers, according to Dr. Michael Brody of George Mason University.
“Enhanced attribution studies are vital for informed decision-making, from disaster recovery to future preparedness,” Dr. Brody emphasizes.
Improving the prediction, dissemination, and action surrounding extreme weather forecasts is essential to saving lives and reducing vulnerabilities. While Hurricane Helene was well-predicted, its devastating impact highlighted how underprepared communities remain exposed to climate risks.
“Forecast accuracy must be matched by effective communication and timely action,” asserts Dr. Piotr Wolski of the University of Cape Town. He stresses the importance of addressing vulnerabilities to foster climate resilience, a crucial step in mitigating future disasters.
The extreme weather events of 2024 serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for global action. Better understanding climate drivers, enhancing forecasting capabilities, and fostering resilience are critical to safeguarding communities against future shocks.
The challenges are immense, but so are the opportunities to act. By prioritizing scientific research, infrastructure development, and community education, we can prepare for a world increasingly defined by climatic extremes.
