As the 2027 elections loom on the horizon, the opposition against President William Ruto’s second-term bid faces significant hurdles, with the path to unity appearing increasingly fraught with challenges. Former allies of Ruto, including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, are central to the formation of a movement aimed at dethroning Ruto. However, this alliance, now dubbed the “People’s Alliance,” has multiple obstacles to overcome.
One of the primary challenges is the task of selecting a presidential candidate. Gachagua’s ambitions have been complicated by his impeachment as Deputy President, which legally bars him from running unless overturned. Despite this, he has emerged as a key figure, aiming to consolidate the Mount Kenya vote and possibly act as kingmaker rather than flagbearer. His recent meetings with regional leaders, including Martha Karua, underscore his intent to solidify support for a future political vehicle.
The opposition’s struggle extends beyond selecting a candidate. The decision on the political vehicle for 2027 is equally pivotal. While some advocate for a unified party, others push for an alliance of regional parties backing a common candidate. This echoes the formation of the Azimio La Umoja Coalition in 2022, which had 26 member parties, but the opposition now faces an uphill battle with each leader seeking to bolster their own party before committing to any unified structure.
Amidst these challenges, the risk of political moles infiltrating the opposition camp looms large. The defections of Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula to Ruto’s camp in 2022 have left a bitter lesson: spoilers can easily fragment the vote. The opposition cannot afford such disunity, as it threatens to undermine their bid for power.
Regional kingpins will play a crucial role in rallying support in their areas, with leaders like Kalonzo and Gachagua holding sway in key regions. However, personal ambitions and the influence of figures like Okiya Omtatah, who is eyeing a presidential bid, could further complicate the coalition’s ability to present a unified front.
With only a few years left until the 2027 elections, the opposition’s ability to overcome these internal divisions will be crucial in their bid to challenge President Ruto’s dominance. The road ahead is littered with political landmines, and only time will tell if they can successfully navigate them.
