2024 has proven to be a defining year for democracy in sub-Saharan Africa, as governing parties across the region face an unprecedented series of electoral defeats and setbacks. From landslide losses to bruising defeats, incumbents have struggled to retain power, marking a significant shift in the political landscape. In several elections, governing parties either lost power or saw a dramatic reduction in their parliamentary seats. This year’s electoral outcomes suggest that Africa, often seen as a region fraught with authoritarian regimes, is demonstrating remarkable democratic resilience.
In Namibia, for example, the ruling Swapo party, which has held power for over 30 years, experienced a significant erosion of its dominance in the 2024 elections. While Swapo’s candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, won the presidency, becoming the first female leader of the country, her victory was tainted by opposition claims of electoral irregularities. Swapo, despite holding onto the presidency, saw its parliamentary strength wane, losing 12 of its 63 seats, a troubling sign for a party once considered unassailable.
Namibia’s struggles were part of a broader trend across the continent. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which ruled the country since independence in 1966, was annihilated in the October general elections. The BDP saw its share of parliamentary seats collapse, going from 38 out of 69 to a mere four, signaling an end to its long-standing dominance. Mauritius also witnessed a dramatic shift when the ruling Alliance Lepep coalition, led by Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, was reduced to just two seats out of 66, with the opposition sweeping the rest.
Perhaps the most striking example of political transformation came in Senegal, where opposition parties achieved a stunning victory despite the government’s attempts to suppress them. Opposition leaders Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko, imprisoned in the lead-up to the election, were released under immense domestic and international pressure. Faye won the presidency in the first round, with the government’s candidate trailing far behind.
South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), while retaining power, suffered its worst electoral performance since the end of apartheid in 1994. Falling below 50% of the vote for the first time, the ANC had to form a coalition government, ceding crucial cabinet positions to opposition parties. These results reflect a broader regional trend of increasing electoral competitiveness and growing public disillusionment with long-standing political elites.
The reasons behind these electoral upheavals are multifaceted. Economic mismanagement, rising corruption, and increasing public dissatisfaction with governments’ handling of day-to-day issues have fueled opposition movements. In countries like Botswana and Mauritius, citizens’ frustrations over rising living costs, exacerbated by inflation, have further undermined the credibility of the ruling parties. The growing economic hardship, with soaring food and fuel prices, has made it harder for incumbents to maintain popular support.
Moreover, the opposition has become more strategic in its campaigns, learning from past mistakes. In Mauritius and Botswana, opposition parties coordinated efforts to monitor the electoral process closely, ensuring that every step was transparent and credible. In Botswana, the Umbrella for Democratic Change, a coalition of three opposition parties, successfully mobilized voters and offered a united front against the ruling BDP. This marked a shift in how African opposition parties organize, signaling a new era of political activism and engagement.
The challenges faced by governing parties in 2024 are not just a reflection of regional issues but are part of a global trend. From the UK to the United States, economic discontent and the rise of populist movements have reshaped political landscapes. Yet, what stands out in Africa’s case is the resilience of democratic institutions and the increasing sophistication of opposition parties.
As sub-Saharan Africa heads into 2025, with elections expected in countries like Ghana and Malawi, the trend of opposition victories may continue. If Ghana’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) faces a similar defeat, it would mark a historic fifth opposition victory in the region in a single year. This surge in democratic engagement stands in stark contrast to the rise of authoritarianism in other parts of the world.
For global democracy advocates, the events in Africa this year are a reminder of the continent’s capacity for democratic bounce-back. With vibrant civil societies, motivated opposition parties, and engaged citizens, sub-Saharan Africa is proving to be a dynamic region where democracy is alive, well, and capable of thriving even in challenging circumstances.
