California’s $59 billion agricultural industry is facing increasing uncertainty as Donald Trump’s trade policies, particularly his tariffs, continue to affect the state’s critical relationship with China, one of its largest buyers of agricultural goods. The Golden State, which supplies one-third of the U.S. vegetables and 75% of its fruits and nuts, also exports nearly $24 billion in produce annually. However, retaliatory tariffs imposed by China could severely harm California’s farmers, especially as they attempt to plan for harvests and sales amid the ongoing trade tensions.
Farmers already contend with extreme weather events, such as floods and wildfires, and restrictions on water use. These challenges are compounded by Trump’s policies, which have included funding freezes for agricultural research, immigration crackdowns, and cuts to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s budget. The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations is creating more difficulty, as many decisions, such as whether to cull livestock or harvest crops, must be made long before the actual harvest.
The almond industry, in particular, has been hit hard by trade wars. California produces around 76% of the world’s almonds, and the state exports a significant portion of its crop. With retaliatory tariffs potentially driving up prices, competitors like Australia could benefit as countries look for alternatives to pricier U.S. almonds. The effects of Trump’s first-term trade war are still fresh in the minds of California’s farmers, many of whom have yet to recover from the previous disruptions. Almond and pistachio prices had only just begun to rebound when Trump imposed even higher tariffs, threatening to disrupt the industry further.
California tree nut growers were among the hardest hit during the first trade war, with losses totaling $880 million, according to a 2022 analysis by UC Davis researchers. Although the U.S. government offered $12 billion in aid to farmers in 2018, many California farmers were excluded from receiving compensation, and many small farms struggled to recover. The new trade war could cost the state an additional $6 billion per year, potentially reducing its agricultural exports by a quarter, affecting both large-scale orchards and small family-owned vineyards.
Despite these looming threats, some farm advocates remain hopeful that the federal government might offer assistance again, though the shrinking support from the Trump administration raises concerns. Farmers are watching closely for any changes to tariffs that could have major financial consequences. Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California, noted the industry’s ongoing concerns about both retaliatory tariffs and U.S. tariffs that could impact the materials almond farmers rely on.
Almonds are California’s top agricultural export, generating $5.8 billion in 2024, which highlights their importance to both state and national economies. Industry leaders, such as Alexi Rodriguez, president of the Almond Alliance, are urging officials to carefully consider the potential damage that retaliatory tariffs could inflict on the almond market.
Despite the economic risks posed by the tariffs, many farmers remain loyal to Trump, hoping that his administration will fulfill promises to address California’s water shortages. However, the state’s agricultural sector faces a paradox while water is a critical resource for crops like almonds, droughts and water restrictions continue to threaten crop yields. In a state deeply divided along political lines, many rural communities, particularly those in the Central Valley, continue to support Trump’s stance on water policy.
Professor Colin Carter, a noted agricultural economist, warns that if the tariffs continue, the agricultural sector could experience more severe damage than even the state’s worst droughts. With foreign countries targeting key commodities like almonds and pistachios, the situation in California’s agricultural sector remains precarious. As trade wars escalate, it seems the stakes for the state’s farmers grow ever higher.
