Climate change is disrupting global food production in unprecedented ways, with consequences that will affect everything from farming practices to biodiversity. A recent example highlights this issue: in Sicily, the growing conditions are becoming more favorable to tropical mangos than to the region’s traditional crops like lemons and olives. This shift is just one of many predicted in a 2020 study by Conservation International scientists, which looked at how climate change would transform agricultural zones and lead to new farming frontiers.
The study, led by Lee Hannah and Patrick Roehrdanz, focused on how areas once considered unsuitable for farming particularly in the Northern Hemisphere would become more conducive to agriculture as temperatures rise. At the same time, the study acknowledged that such changes would bring serious ecological consequences, especially for forests. As more land becomes suitable for farming, large areas of forests may be cleared, leading to a loss of biodiversity and vital carbon sinks.
The potential for these changes to alter ecosystems is already being seen in tropical regions. One of the most striking examples is the Andes, where farmers are shifting crops up the mountain slopes to find cooler areas as temperatures rise. The region has a “green gap,” a strip of cleared land in the middle of the mountains, where agriculture is now taking place because it offers a balance between warmth and disease control. However, as temperatures rise, that green gap is moving higher up the mountains, forcing farmers and wildlife into new territories.
As Hannah and Roehrdanz discussed, while these changes may not be immediately obvious on a global scale, they are profoundly affecting local ecosystems. The shift in farming in the tropics, especially in mountain valleys, has serious implications for biodiversity. Species that thrive in the lower elevations are forced upwards, but the species at the highest points may have nowhere to go. This phenomenon, referred to as the “escalator to extinction,” is already causing certain species of birds and frogs to disappear from the highest mountain slopes, never to be seen again.
The consequences of these shifts go beyond farming. The global food landscape is being scrambled, with new agricultural frontiers opening up in the North, but often at the expense of the environment. If regions like Canada continue to promote agriculture in the far north without proper planning, it could lead to massive deforestation and significant carbon emissions. At the same time, the movement of crops to higher elevations in tropical regions threatens to further erode vital habitats, putting additional pressure on already vulnerable species.
The researchers stress that policymakers need to take action now to prepare for these changes. They argue that farmers, who are already adapting to changing conditions, are tuned in to the shifting climate. However, there is still a lack of awareness among policymakers regarding the far-reaching effects these changes could have. Without the proper planning and policies in place, these shifts in agricultural suitability could lead to significant disruptions in global food production and nature conservation.
In short, the scrambling of food production brought about by climate change requires immediate attention from both farmers and policymakers. Failure to plan for these shifts could lead to catastrophic consequences for both human livelihoods and the environment. The changes we are witnessing today are only the beginning, and the future will depend on how well we prepare for the dramatic shifts ahead.
