American farmers are bracing for significant challenges as retaliatory tariffs threaten their exports and bottom lines. These tariffs come in response to the escalating trade war between the United States and its major trading partners China, Mexico, and Canada and have the potential to impact a wide range of agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, pork, and more.
The U.S. agricultural sector was severely impacted during the previous trade war with China under President Trump’s administration, which saw billions of dollars lost in agricultural exports. This time, experts predict an even worse outcome. China’s Ministry of Finance recently announced that it would impose tariffs as high as 15 percent on various U.S. agricultural imports, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton. In addition, Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent on $20.5 billion worth of U.S. goods, including agricultural products like orange juice and peanut butter. Mexico also promised its own response, adding to the uncertainty faced by farmers across the country.
The agricultural industry is particularly vulnerable because it constitutes a significant portion of U.S. exports. In 2024, China alone accounted for about 14 percent of U.S. agricultural exports, valued at roughly $24.7 billion. Mexico and Canada together imported even more around $30.3 billion and $28.4 billion, respectively. This high level of dependency on these markets means that any disruption in trade could have severe financial repercussions for farmers, especially those in rural areas who are also a strong base of support for President Trump’s political agenda.
Farmers like Mark Legan, who grows both soybeans and pork in Indiana, are particularly concerned about how retaliatory tariffs will affect their business. Legan’s exports to Mexico and China have already been negatively impacted by previous trade wars, with soybeans and pork being among the hardest-hit commodities. As competitors like Brazil increase their market share, Legan is worried about losing access to these vital export markets once again. He and many others in the agricultural industry are trying to navigate the uncertainty, a challenge made even more difficult by the changing dynamics of global trade.
Industry groups are vocal in their criticism of the tariffs, warning that they could hurt the very farmers they aim to protect. Tariffs on agricultural products might prompt China, Mexico, and Canada to turn to other countries for their food imports, reducing demand for American goods and driving down prices. In particular, soybeans one of the U.S.’s top exports to China have already seen a drop in futures prices due to these trade tensions. Similarly, corn and wheat futures have also taken a hit as concerns mount over the potential for reduced exports.
The impact of these tariffs is not only felt in the form of reduced exports and falling crop prices but also in rising costs for farmers. For example, the U.S. imports a significant portion of its potash, a key ingredient in fertilizer, from Canada. Retaliatory tariffs on Canadian goods could raise the cost of essential farming supplies, further straining farmers’ finances. Additionally, the growing uncertainty about crop prices could affect their ability to plan for the season, with many already having planted crops that may not yield the expected return.
While some small-scale organic farmers may benefit from a focus on domestic markets, the broader agricultural industry faces a difficult road ahead. Even those not directly exporting to China, Mexico, or Canada may feel the ripple effects of rising costs and shifting trade policies. Rural communities, which are already dealing with cuts to federal funding and rising debt, may bear the brunt of these financial challenges.
The Trump administration’s approach to these trade disputes mirrors the previous administration’s actions, which included offering subsidies to farmers in response to the loss of export markets. However, the question remains whether these subsidies will be as widespread or effective as they were in the past. Many farmers would prefer to rely on the market for their income, but with their access to key international markets in jeopardy, government assistance may be necessary to ensure their survival in an increasingly volatile agricultural economy.
As the trade war intensifies, U.S. farmers are left navigating a complex and uncertain environment, where changing tariffs, unpredictable costs, and global competition threaten to reshape the future of American agriculture.
