The future of global food production is at serious risk due to the growing threat of aridity, a process that threatens around 40% of Earth’s arable lands, according to a new report released at the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16). Aridity, which refers to a long-term lack of moisture necessary to sustain terrestrial life, is becoming a major driver of agricultural degradation, with widespread implications for food security and economies.
The report highlights that aridity affects roughly 5.7 million square kilometers of the Earth’s arable land, and when combined with the impacts of soil erosion, the total area affected rises by an additional seven percent. Climate change is projected to exacerbate this trend, with an estimated increase in the global arid region by 3.9% by 2040. This would lead to significant losses in crop yields, including 20 million tonnes of maize, 19 million tonnes of rice, 8 million tonnes of soybeans, and 21 million tonnes of wheat. These figures underscore the severity of the problem and the long-term implications for food production worldwide.
Aridity is distinct from drought in that it is a persistent condition, unlike droughts, which are short-term anomalies. While droughts may draw more immediate attention due to their sudden and dramatic impacts, aridity is subtler and its effects on crop yields are more difficult to quantify. However, its long-term nature makes it an even more insidious threat to global food systems. Aridity results from a combination of factors, including low rainfall, high temperatures, and low air humidity, all of which reduce the availability of water needed for crop growth.
The report also points out that areas with a high proportion of arid, semi-arid, or hyper-arid land are already seeing reduced crop outputs, even in regions where precipitation has increased. This suggests that, in many cases, increased evaporation due to higher atmospheric temperatures may negate the benefits of increased rainfall. Between 1961 and 2020, more than 77% of the Earth’s land became permanently drier, marking a significant shift in global land use and water availability.
As the planet becomes increasingly arid, food security becomes a major concern for many nations, especially those that rely heavily on food imports. Countries that are heavily dependent on agricultural imports face heightened risks when food prices rise or when severe droughts disrupt global food production, making imports unavailable. The report emphasizes that the impacts of aridity on food security will only worsen in the coming decades, with the most severe consequences expected in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia.
Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, faces a grim future as rising aridity threatens to significantly reduce crop yields. By mid-century, it is projected that between 17% and 22% of current crop production in the region could be lost due to increasing temperatures and water scarcity. Rainfed agriculture, which relies on seasonal rainfall, is expected to be particularly vulnerable. In some regions, such as Kenya, maize production could decline by as much as 50% by 2050 due to rising evaporation rates, which exacerbate the already challenging conditions faced by farmers.
The effects of aridity are not limited to agricultural production. The socioeconomic consequences are profound, as shrinking agricultural output leads to higher food prices and increased instability in food supply chains. Many countries in arid regions may find it increasingly difficult to produce enough food to meet the needs of their populations, which could lead to greater dependence on food imports and a corresponding increase in the vulnerability of these nations to global market fluctuations and crises.
In response to these threats, the global community is urged to take action to address the root causes of aridity and mitigate its effects. Strategies may include investing in more sustainable agricultural practices, improving water management, and supporting research into drought-resistant crops and farming technologies. However, without significant global cooperation and concerted action, the future of food production remains uncertain, and the risks of widespread food insecurity will continue to rise. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, combined with long-term changes in precipitation patterns, underscores the need for urgent and comprehensive solutions to ensure food security for future generations.
