As Kenya’s 2027 elections approach, a heated debate has emerged over the role of formally employed workers in shaping the outcome. Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has been at the forefront, urging salaried Kenyans to rally against President William Ruto’s administration, citing heavy taxation as a primary grievance. However, Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU) Secretary General Francis Atwoli has dismissed these claims, asserting that Kenya’s political landscape is more influenced by ethnicity than economic issues.
Gachagua has repeatedly argued that the 3.2 million formally employed Kenyans, who have seen increased deductions from their payslips, hold significant political power. He claims that each payslip holder influences at least two other voters, potentially creating a voting bloc of nine million against Ruto in 2027. This argument is rooted in growing discontent over payroll deductions, including a 1.5% Housing Levy, a 2.75% health insurance contribution, and an impending increase in National Social Security Fund (NSSF) contributions.
On Monday, Gachagua vowed that his administration, if elected, would abolish the Housing Levy to “restore the dignity of the payslip.” He also accused Atwoli of failing workers by remaining silent instead of challenging excessive taxation.
However, Atwoli dismissed Gachagua’s position, emphasizing that the taxation narrative is being weaponized for political gain. He argued that taxation is a global reality and that Kenya’s problem has been historical tax evasion rather than over-taxation. “The real question is whether tax revenue is being used for its intended purpose,” he said.
Atwoli further challenged Gachagua’s credibility, reminding him that the same levies he now opposes were introduced under his leadership as Deputy President. “Where was he when these deductions were initiated?” Atwoli asked.
While taxation remains a pressing issue for salaried Kenyans, Atwoli believes it will not be the decisive factor in the 2027 elections. Instead, he maintains that ethnicity will continue to play a dominant role in shaping voter decisions. His remarks highlight a longstanding challenge in Kenyan politics, where economic issues often take a backseat to regional and tribal affiliations.
As the election season gains momentum, the debate over taxation and its impact on voter behavior will likely intensify. However, whether Gachagua’s push will translate into a significant political shift remains uncertain, given Kenya’s historically ethnicity-driven voting patterns.
