Big Split in Azimio Over Gachagua’s Looming Impeachment: A Coalition at Risk

The political landscape in Kenya is once again turbulent, with the looming impeachment motion against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua triggering deep divisions within the Azimio La Umoja coalition. This development comes just weeks after coalition leader Raila Odinga announced his political retirement, leaving the coalition in a fragile state and raising concerns about its ability to maintain unity leading up to the 2027 elections.

The Impeachment Motion and Its Implications

The push to impeach Gachagua has garnered significant attention, primarily because of the implications it carries for the future of the Azimio coalition. Almost all Azimio MPs have signed the petition to oust Gachagua, showcasing a united front in Parliament. However, the leadership outside the legislative chamber is expressing caution. Key figures such as Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K boss Eugene Wamalwa have publicly criticized the impeachment motion, framing it as a political witch-hunt orchestrated by the Kenya Kwanza administration.

During a funeral service for victims of a tragic school fire in Nyeri, Kalonzo articulated a strong stance against the motion, insisting that any attempt to impeach Gachagua should also include President William Ruto. This statement underscores the internal fractures within the coalition, as it reflects the differing priorities of various factions within Azimio.

The Divided Opposition: A Coalition in Crisis

The Azimio coalition is facing a significant identity crisis, with its factions increasingly at odds over key political strategies. Kalonzo and Wamalwa’s positions highlight the fractures within the coalition. They have both declared their intent to rally support for Gachagua, portraying the impeachment attempt as an attack on the Mt. Kenya region and its leadership. This defensive posture suggests an underlying tension regarding regional representation and loyalty, particularly in the face of perceived threats from the ruling coalition.

In contrast, Azimio’s Minority Leader in the National Assembly, Junet Mohammed, has been actively coordinating the petition to impeach Gachagua. This stark divergence in strategy highlights a rift between the parliamentary wing of the coalition and its leadership, further complicating the coalition’s efforts to present a unified front.

The situation has led to accusations within Azimio, with ODM representatives urging Kalonzo to refrain from meddling in parliamentary affairs. ODM’s Deputy Leader Geoffrey Osotsi emphasized that the impeachment is not a party issue but a parliamentary one, illustrating the internal discord regarding the coalition’s direction and strategy.

Numerical Weaknesses and Political Calculations

The numerical strength of various factions within Azimio poses a significant challenge for Kalonzo and Wamalwa as they attempt to rally support for Gachagua. With ODM being the largest party in Azimio, boasting 86 MPs, followed by Jubilee with 28 and Wiper with 26, the combined efforts of Kalonzo’s faction may not be enough to sway the outcome in Gachagua’s favor.

Kalonzo’s faction can only muster around 36 MPs, while Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition commands a dominant presence in the National Assembly with 231 MPs. This stark numerical imbalance raises questions about the feasibility of successfully opposing the impeachment motion. Political analysts, including governance expert Javas Bigambo, have pointed out that Kalonzo’s faction lacks the necessary leverage to effectively challenge the motion, urging him to take a clearer stance on the issue.

Gachagua’s Plight: A Strained Relationship with Ruto

Gachagua’s political predicament is further complicated by his strained relationship with President Ruto. Reports suggest that attempts to mend fences between the two leaders have faltered, contributing to a sense of urgency surrounding the impeachment motion. Sources indicate that religious leaders and elders have tried to intervene on Gachagua’s behalf, but these efforts appear to have been unsuccessful.

The grounds for Gachagua’s impeachment revolve around allegations of his involvement in the historic storming of Parliament by youth activists on June 25. Gachagua has publicly decried these allegations as part of an “evil scheme” aimed at discrediting him, underscoring the high stakes involved in this political battle.

Calls for Dialogue Amidst Divisive Politics

As tensions rise, some leaders are advocating for dialogue rather than impeachment. ACK Archbishop Jackson Ole Sapit has called for reconciliation between Gachagua and Ruto, urging both leaders to prioritize dialogue over political conflict. This appeal for unity reflects a growing concern that ongoing divisions could exacerbate the already polarized political climate in Kenya.

In a similar vein, the Gema Cultural Association has publicly expressed support for Gachagua, signaling a potential backlash against the impeachment motion. Their full-page advertisement in local newspapers calling for the Deputy President to be allowed to complete his term indicates that there are factions within the Mt. Kenya region that feel strongly about supporting their leadership amidst these turbulent political developments.

The Path Forward: A Coalition at a Crossroads

As the situation unfolds, the Azimio coalition is left grappling with the potential fallout of the impeachment motion. The divisions within the coalition could lead to a further deterioration of relationships among its members, impacting their ability to work together effectively. The looming question remains whether Azimio can withstand this internal turmoil and maintain coherence leading up to the next elections.

The political dynamics within Kenya are rapidly evolving, with the outcome of Gachagua’s impeachment set to have far-reaching consequences for the future of both the Deputy President and the Azimio coalition. Should the motion proceed and succeed, it could mark a significant turning point, reshaping the political landscape ahead of the 2027 elections.

Conclusion: Navigating Uncertain Waters

The current political crisis surrounding Deputy President Gachagua is emblematic of the broader challenges facing the Azimio coalition. With divisions deepening and the specter of impeachment looming large, the coalition must confront its internal fractures and reassess its strategies moving forward. The path ahead is fraught with uncertainty, and how the coalition navigates these turbulent waters will ultimately determine its viability and cohesion in the lead-up to the next election cycle.

In a time when unity is paramount for any political coalition, Azimio finds itself at a critical juncture. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether it can rally around a common purpose or if the internal divisions will lead to further fragmentation. As political maneuvers unfold, the eyes of Kenyans will be closely watching to see how this saga resolves and what it means for the future of governance in the country.