Brazil’s corn production forecast has been reduced once more, marking a continuing trend of shrinking estimates for the country’s output. According to the latest figures from Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), total corn production is now projected to be 147.3 million metric tons (mmt), down by 1.41 mmt from previous estimates. This represents a significant 12.2% decline compared to last year’s output.
The decrease in production is largely attributed to an intensified El Niño, which has adversely affected crops since the early planting stages. Conab highlighted that the weather phenomenon’s influence has been a key factor in the lower yields.
The second corn crop, known as safrinha, has been particularly impacted. The latest forecast indicates that safrinha output has dropped by 3.4% from the previous projection, now estimated at 88 mmt. Despite these challenges, the harvest of safrinha is underway, with progress varying significantly across different states.
In Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest corn-producing state, the harvest is 76% complete, and 45% of the new crop has already been sold, as reported by consultancy AgRural. Favorable weather conditions have facilitated a swift harvest in this region. However, the situation is quite different in Mato Grosso do Sul, where the harvest is lagging, with only 29% completed.
The overall decrease in Brazil’s corn production has implications for both domestic and international markets. As one of the world’s leading corn exporters, reduced output from Brazil could affect global corn supply and prices.
Farmers and stakeholders are closely monitoring the situation, hoping for more stable weather conditions in the coming months to prevent further declines in production. The impact of El Niño on crop yields underscores the vulnerability of agriculture to climatic fluctuations and the importance of adaptive measures to mitigate such risks.
As the harvest continues, the agricultural sector remains vigilant, aiming to maximize the yield and manage the challenges posed by the unpredictable weather patterns. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the final output and addressing the broader implications for the market.
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