Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s political future hangs in a delicate balance following his impeachment, but he remains a significant figure in Kenya’s evolving political landscape. His recent statements, coupled with a promise to launch a formidable coalition in January 2025, have sparked debates on whether he can wield influence beyond his Mt Kenya stronghold in the 2027 general elections.
Gachagua has described his 2022 support for President William Ruto as a “political miscalculation” and vowed to chart a new political trajectory. He has hinted at a revolution beginning in Mt Kenya, potentially forming a coalition that could rival the historic National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) of 2002. His ability to deliver Mt Kenya’s significant vote bloc, which contributed 47% of Ruto’s presidential votes in 2022, underscores his mobilizing prowess.
Mt Kenya’s Role in Gachagua’s Strategy
Political analysts suggest Gachagua does not need to venture beyond Mt Kenya to remain a key player in the 2027 elections. Mark Bichachi, a seasoned analyst, believes that commanding a substantial portion of the region’s votes will give Gachagua leverage to negotiate a significant political role.
“If Gachagua can command a key portion of the Mt Kenya bloc, he can be a major political player,” said Bichachi. His strategy could involve forming alliances with other leaders, such as Kalonzo Musyoka and Eugene Wamalwa, to challenge Ruto’s re-election bid.
However, Mt Kenya’s political dynamics are shifting. President Ruto’s appointment of Kithure Kindiki as Deputy President reflects a bid to maintain influence in the region. Despite this, analysts argue that sidelining Gachagua could alienate key Mt Kenya leaders and voters, complicating Ruto’s 2027 strategy.
National Appeal and Challenges
While Gachagua’s appeal within Mt Kenya is strong, his influence outside the region is less certain. His outspoken advocacy for Mt Kenya interests has earned him admiration locally but alienated leaders and voters elsewhere, who perceive him as a tribalist. Political analyst Fred Sasia notes that Gachagua’s ability to resonate with a national audience remains limited, a challenge for any leader seeking to build a broad coalition.
Nevertheless, Gachagua’s fearlessness and vocal stance on controversial issues are assets in Kenya’s politically charged environment. He has publicly criticized Ruto’s administration for awarding tenders to the Adani Group, showcasing his willingness to challenge the status quo. This quality, Sasia argues, positions him as a fearless mobilizer capable of rallying support, provided he builds a diverse team that bridges regional divides.
A Path to Reinvention?
To regain political relevance, Gachagua could align himself with younger, ambitious politicians like Ndindi Nyoro, positioning himself as a chief mobilizer. This approach might endear him to Mt Kenya voters but may not suffice to reestablish his national standing.
His impeachment, however, casts a shadow over his ambitions. Legal experts, including former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko, emphasize that Gachagua still has the right to appeal the decision. The Constitution permits individuals to vie for office if all avenues of appeal have not been exhausted. Sonko has encouraged Gachagua to persist in seeking justice, keeping the door open for a potential comeback.
The Road Ahead
Gachagua’s hints at reconciling with retired President Uhuru Kenyatta and acknowledging the latter’s enduring influence in Mt Kenya signal a pragmatic shift in his political approach. As the region’s political powerhouse, Mt Kenya remains a critical player in Kenya’s national elections, and Gachagua’s ability to consolidate its support could redefine his role in the country’s future.
For now, Gachagua’s political influence is diminished but not extinguished. Whether he can overcome legal hurdles, rebuild his credibility, and extend his appeal beyond Mt Kenya will determine his impact on the 2027 elections.
