Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, Raila Odinga, has embarked on an ambitious diplomatic campaign ahead of the February 2025 elections. The race for the continent’s top leadership position is heating up, with Raila’s strategy involving targeted outreach to Francophone nations, where his main rival, Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, is believed to have considerable support.
The AUC elections, conducted by secret ballot, will take place during the African Union Summit. The AU, with its 55 member states, will elect leaders for eight senior positions, including the chairperson, deputy chairperson, and six commissioners. These roles, with four-year renewable terms, demand candidates to engage extensively across Africa to secure votes.
A Strategic Start in West Africa
Raila’s campaign is guided by Ambassador Elkanah Odembo, who disclosed a packed calendar of high-stakes diplomacy. The former Prime Minister’s first stop is Abuja, Nigeria, the current chair of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an influential bloc with 15 member countries. Odembo underscored the significance of ECOWAS, noting its substantial number of Francophone nations.
“Nigeria is pivotal in our strategy. It holds considerable sway within ECOWAS,” Odembo stated, revealing that Raila is scheduled to meet Nigerian President Bola Tinubu. Other ECOWAS members Raila aims to court include Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Ghana, nations with strong diplomatic ties to Kenya.
Forging Relationships
Raila’s diplomatic offensive extends beyond traditional alliances. His previous engagements with African leaders during events like the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the United Nations General Assembly have provided openings for dialogue. Leaders such as Senegalese President Diomaye Faye and Côte d’Ivoire’s Alassane Ouattara have reportedly invited him to solidify their support.
The campaign will take Raila to South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Botswana. In Botswana, he plans to meet President Duma Boko, continuing a relationship bolstered during Boko’s swearing-in, where Kenya’s Deputy President Kithure Kindiki previously advocated for Raila’s candidature.
Balancing Regional Dynamics
The contest for AUC chairmanship reflects the complex interplay of regional blocs, language divides, and international influences. Raila’s campaign must navigate the divide between Anglophone and Francophone countries, religion, age demographics, and the increasing sway of external powers like Russia and China on the continent.
Kenya’s government, led by President William Ruto, has thrown significant weight behind Raila’s bid. This partnership, surprising given the duo’s historical rivalry, signals a unified front. Ruto’s administration has committed resources to rally support, viewing this as a chance to showcase Kenya’s diplomatic prowess.
Raila’s track record as a statesman has been a key selling point. “He brings immense value to the African Union Commission through his vast leadership experience,” Kindiki emphasized during discussions with Botswana’s leadership.
Building Momentum
Raila’s campaign secretariat has translated his credentials into six languages to broaden his appeal. Support has already been secured from countries like Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. His team continues to explore strategies to sway undecided nations and shore up additional endorsements.
The campaign will culminate in a televised debate, the Africa Leadership Debate or Mjadala Afrika, where candidates will outline their vision for the AU. This platform offers a critical opportunity to resonate with African citizens and leaders.
As Raila crisscrosses the continent, the race for the AUC chairmanship tests Kenya’s influence and leadership at a continental level. With months of intense diplomacy ahead, his campaign reflects the high stakes and shifting dynamics shaping Africa’s future.
