Time is on our side, but vigilance is key. A newly detected asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, has a 1.6% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. While this may sound alarming, experts stress that further observations are likely to reduce this probability to zero, just as they did with past asteroids like Apophis in 2004.
First spotted on December 27, 2024, by Chile’s El Sauce Observatory, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. Its highly elliptical, four-year orbit takes it through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. At present, the asteroid is moving away from Earth, with its next close pass expected in 2028.
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been closely monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory, and on January 29, 2025, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a memo outlining potential impact sites. These include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, the devastation could be catastrophic. The energy released from an airburst explosion would be equivalent to approximately eight megatons of TNT over 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. A direct hit over a major city could wipe it out entirely, much like the Tunguska Event of 1908, which flattened 770 square miles of Siberian forest.
However, an ocean impact would likely reduce the destruction, unless it triggered a tsunami near a populated coastline.
Fortunately, we have nearly a decade to prepare. NASA’s 2022 Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully nudged an asteroid off course using a spacecraft, proving that a kinetic impactor strategy can work. If needed, a similar mission could be launched to deflect 2024 YR4.
Other methods, such as laser vaporization or a gravity tractor a spacecraft using its gravitational pull to alter an asteroid’s path are still in theoretical stages but remain viable options.
While the threat of 2024 YR4 is real, experts emphasize that no one should be alarmed. “Nobody should be scared about this,” says Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at NASA. “We can find these things, make predictions, and have the ability to plan.”
For now, the best course of action is to continue monitoring and refining the asteroid’s trajectory. With time on our side, humanity has both the knowledge and technology to prevent a disaster.
