As the UEFA Nations League continues to showcase Europe’s footballing talents, Croatia hosts Scotland at the Stadion Maksimir in Zagreb this Saturday. This match is critical for both teams, given their differing fortunes in recent competitions and their respective paths in the Nations League.
Croatia has been adjusting to life post-World Cup with a mix of veterans and new faces, aiming to reassert their presence on the international stage. Meanwhile, Scotland faces challenges to regain form after a disappointing series of performances.
In this preview, we analyze the form, potential lineups, and betting opportunities for this encounter.
Best Bets for Croatia vs Scotland
- Croatia Victory @1.59: The odds imply a 62% chance of a home victory. Croatia has shown resilience at home and boasts more talent and depth than the Scots.
- Under 2.5 Goals @1.896: A tight, low-scoring affair is expected, with both teams leaning towards cautious approaches.
- Croatia or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals @1.59: This bet ensures safety by covering both the Croatian win or a draw, with no more than three goals in total.
A 1-0 win for Croatia seems like a reasonable prediction, given recent form and the nature of the competition.
Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Croatia’s Form
Croatia enters the fixture aiming to rediscover consistency. After finishing as runners-up in the 2023 Nations League, the Balkan side is adjusting to a transition period. Despite possessing talented veterans like Luka Modrić, questions around squad depth and aging stars have emerged. The early elimination from Euro 2024 left them seeking redemption in the Nations League.
Croatia currently sits second in Group 1 of League A with three points from two matches. Their narrow home win over Poland helped end a four-match winless streak, giving them a much-needed confidence boost. However, coach Zlatko Dalić’s task is to ensure the team balances experience with fresh energy, as they also look towards the 2026 World Cup.
The home advantage at the Stadion Maksimir is a significant factor. Croatia has lost just once in their last seven home matches—falling to Turkey—and is determined to build on that solid form.
Scotland’s Form
Scotland’s journey in the Nations League has been disappointing, marked by frustrating losses in the dying minutes of games. Late goals against both Poland and Portugal have drained their momentum, and their campaign hangs by a thread.
Manager Steve Clarke finds himself under growing pressure to halt the team’s decline. Although the Scottish FA has shown no signs of replacing him, the need for immediate results is evident. Following a promising start to the Euro 2024 qualifiers, including a victory over Spain, Scotland’s fortunes have since plummeted, leading to an early exit from the tournament.
The team has struggled in the attacking department, with reliance on midfielders like Scott McTominay to carry the burden of creativity. Their forward line has failed to deliver consistently, leaving Clarke searching for solutions. One bright spark is young winger Ben Doak, whose speed and potential have excited fans, but the team lacks an established goal-scorer to complement him.
Probable Lineups for Croatia vs Scotland
Croatia
- Formation: 4-3-3
- Starting XI: Livaković; Jakic, Šutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modrić, Kovačić, Sučić; Pašalić, Kramarić, Ivanušec
Zlatko Dalić may opt for a 4-3-3 setup, with a midfield trio anchored by the experienced Modrić and Kovačić. In attack, Kramarić will likely lead the line, supported by Ivanušec and Pašalić.
Scotland
- Formation: 5-4-1
- Starting XI: Gordon; Ralston, Hanley, Porteous, Robertson; Christie, McTominay, Gilmour, Gauld; McLean; Adams
Steve Clarke could deploy a more defensive 5-4-1 formation, seeking to frustrate Croatia while looking for quick counterattacks. Much of Scotland’s success will hinge on the performance of Robertson and McTominay, with Adams tasked with spearheading the attack.
Capitalizing on Home Advantage
Croatia has historically performed well on home soil, and their current form reflects a team slowly building momentum. After struggling through a winless streak, the victory over Poland at home has revived their Nations League campaign. Playing in front of their home crowd at Maksimir adds further motivation, as Croatia has only lost one of their last seven home matches.
The squad’s reliance on experienced players like Modrić, however, highlights the challenges ahead. The Croatian attack has lacked dynamism in recent matches, emphasizing the need for emerging players like Ivanušec to step up. Dalić is under pressure to blend youth and experience effectively as he looks beyond the Nations League toward the World Cup.
Pressure Mounts on Steve Clarke
Scotland’s recent performances have placed Steve Clarke in a difficult position. Although his tenure began with promise, the team’s form has taken a significant downturn. After a commendable qualification run for Euro 2024, hopes of making an impact at the tournament were dashed with an early exit.
Scotland’s inability to find attacking solutions has been a key issue. McTominay remains their most reliable performer in midfield, but the lack of a consistent goal-scorer up front has hindered their progress. Injuries to key players have compounded their problems, forcing Clarke to rely on fringe players to fill crucial roles.
Despite these struggles, there are signs of optimism in the form of Ben Doak. The young winger, currently on loan at Middlesbrough, offers speed and creativity, giving Scotland hope for the future. However, Clarke will need more than potential to turn around their fortunes in the Nations League.
A Cautious Encounter Awaits
Both teams are likely to approach this match cautiously, prioritizing defense over attacking flair. Croatia’s recent games have seen them focus on maintaining clean sheets, while Scotland has struggled to convert chances in the final third.
Given the recent history between these two sides, including Croatia’s 3-1 win at Euro 2020, the hosts enter the match with a psychological advantage. However, Scotland has held their ground at Maksimir in the past, avoiding defeat in previous visits.
Scotland’s away form, however, has been poor. Since their September 2023 victory over Cyprus, they have struggled on foreign soil, adding to the difficulty of their task in Zagreb. With multiple injuries affecting the squad, the Scots will need a disciplined and compact performance to earn a positive result.
Betting Predictions Summary
- Prediction 1: Croatia Victory @1.59
Croatia’s superior squad depth, recent form, and home advantage make them favorites to win this fixture. - Prediction 2: Under 2.5 Goals @1.896
Given both teams’ recent focus on defense, a low-scoring encounter seems likely. - Prediction 3: Croatia or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals @1.59
This bet covers both a Croatian win and a draw, ensuring safety with a conservative goal tally.
A 1-0 victory for Croatia seems the most probable outcome, reflecting both sides’ recent trends and tactical approaches.
Conclusion
Croatia vs Scotland promises to be a tightly contested fixture, with both sides needing points to advance in the Nations League. Croatia’s superior talent and home advantage make them slight favorites, but Scotland’s defensive resilience could make things challenging.
Ultimately, Croatia’s ability to blend experience with youth will be tested, while Scotland must find a way to break their attacking struggles. A narrow victory for the hosts seems the most likely scenario, but the match could hinge on a moment of brilliance or a costly mistake from either side.
