As the legislative calendar for 2024 edges towards its final stretch, the prospects for passing a new farm bill this year are increasingly bleak. According to recent statements and analysis, Congress is facing significant hurdles in advancing the crucial legislation, with little hope for a resolution before the end of the year.
House Agriculture Committee Chair Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) indicated earlier this week that debate on the farm bill might not commence until September. This timeline underscores the growing concerns about the bill’s chances of passing before Congress adjourns for the year. Farm policy expert Jonathan Coppess, a former USDA official during the Obama administration, has labeled the chances of a new farm bill this year as “nearly nonexistent.” Coppess attributes this bleak outlook to unresolved demands by Republicans for increased crop subsidy spending, which have been left undefined, along with ongoing disagreements over cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and climate funding.
The current farm bill, which Congress has been struggling to replace for nearly 10 months, is facing a complex legislative landscape. The bill’s proposed increases in crop subsidies and crop insurance spending, estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be one-third higher than current levels, have not been fully offset, raising concerns about its budgetary impact. Additionally, the proposed cuts to SNAP spending, a recurring point of contention in previous farm bills, have further complicated negotiations.
Senator John Boozman (R-Ark.), the senior Republican on the Senate Agriculture Committee, has suggested that if significant changes to reference prices for subsidy payments cannot be agreed upon, extending the current law into 2025 might be preferable. This sentiment reflects the frustration among lawmakers and stakeholders over the lack of progress.
The farm bill’s difficulties are exacerbated by the current legislative priorities, with government funding bills taking precedence. The proposed increases in reference prices for row crops and expanded crop insurance coverage, though long-standing priorities for farm groups, have not been matched with clear details on the required financial commitments or offsets.
In June, Boozman proposed a 15% increase in reference prices for major crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat, while the House’s Republican farm bill also supports a similar increase. However, the costs associated with these increases remain a sticking point. On the other hand, Senate Agriculture Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) proposed a 5% increase in reference prices, backed by $5 billion in funding, but acknowledged that an extension of the 2018 farm bill might be necessary if progress remains stalled.
As the end of the year approaches, the likelihood of passing a new farm bill diminishes, with the possibility of a “lame duck” compromise after the November elections being the only remaining hope. However, this is considered a long shot, and an extension of the current farm bill remains the more probable outcome.
In summary, with the legislative calendar nearly exhausted and significant disagreements unresolved, the prospects for a new farm bill in 2024 are rapidly diminishing. As Congress grapples with competing priorities and budgetary constraints, stakeholders in the agricultural sector will need to brace for the possibility of continued uncertainty and an extension of the existing law into 2025.
