Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga suffered a significant defeat in his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. His loss to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf was not just a political setback but a clear display of geopolitical maneuvering involving France and Arab states.
France, led by President Emmanuel Macron, played a key role in influencing the election’s outcome. With strategic interests in Djibouti, where it maintains a crucial military base, France mobilized Francophone African nations to back Djibouti’s candidate. Macron engaged in high-level diplomacy, urging African leaders to vote against Raila in favor of a candidate from a nation that aligns closely with French interests.
Simultaneously, Arab states launched an aggressive lobbying campaign, targeting Muslim-majority nations to rally behind Djibouti. Reports indicate that these states offered financial incentives, promising development projects in exchange for votes. The intense lobbying, coupled with strategic promises, significantly bolstered Youssouf’s standing in the race.
Despite entering the contest with assurances from about 33 countries, Raila’s support dwindled to just 22 nations in the final round, leading to his loss in the seventh round of voting. The defeat sent shockwaves through Kenya’s political landscape, with President William Ruto’s camp visibly shaken. Ruto had invested heavily in Raila’s campaign, hoping a victory would strengthen his own political influence ahead of the 2027 elections.
Domestically, Raila’s loss has triggered speculation about political realignments. Analysts suggest that while Ruto aimed to consolidate his power by supporting Raila, the loss could push Raila back into active Kenyan politics, potentially forming new alliances to challenge Ruto’s presidency. ODM insiders indicate that Raila is likely to reclaim full control of his party, preparing for another political battle.
The defeat also exacerbated ethnic divisions in Kenya, with some regions celebrating Raila’s loss, particularly in Mt Kenya, which has increasingly aligned with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. However, ODM leaders have urged unity, with Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma calling for a clear strategy to navigate the evolving political landscape.
With the AUC chair serving a four-year renewable term, Raila’s potential exit from domestic politics, had he won, would have altered Kenya’s political dynamics significantly. Now, his return to the local political scene is expected to reshape the race for 2027, setting the stage for renewed rivalries and potential coalition shifts.
