China has officially approved the construction of what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower dam, located in Tibet’s lower Yarlung Tsangpo River. This colossal project promises to generate three times the energy output of the current largest hydropower plant, the Three Gorges Dam. While state media touts the development as a major step towards climate neutrality and local prosperity, the proposed dam has raised significant concerns regarding its potential impact on the environment, local communities, and regional geopolitics.
The Scope and Ambition of the Project
The planned hydropower dam will be situated in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, also known as the Brahmaputra once it flows into India. The construction will involve the creation of four 20-kilometer-long tunnels through the Namcha Barwa mountain to divert the river’s flow. The project is expected to cost an estimated $127 billion and could have an energy capacity that far surpasses that of the Three Gorges Dam, which is currently the world’s largest hydropower facility. The power generated is anticipated to provide a significant boost to China’s clean energy goals, contributing to its broader climate neutrality targets.
Environmental and Social Concerns
Despite claims by Chinese authorities that the project will prioritize ecological protection, experts and human rights organizations have voiced deep concerns. The Yarlung Tsangpo River, flowing through Tibet’s rugged terrain, is crucial to the region’s ecosystems, home to some of the planet’s most diverse and rich biodiversity. The construction of such a large-scale dam, they argue, could irreparably alter the natural landscape, displacing communities and disrupting fragile ecosystems that have evolved over centuries.
Additionally, while Chinese officials have stressed that the environmental impact would be minimal, they have yet to disclose how many people will be displaced by the project. The Three Gorges Dam, for comparison, necessitated the relocation of over 1.4 million people. In the case of the Yarlung Tsangpo dam, it’s expected that large swaths of local Tibetan communities will be affected, though specifics remain unclear.
Geopolitical Implications
The dam’s location, at the headwaters of a river that flows through India and Bangladesh, raises serious geopolitical questions. The Yarlung Tsangpo’s flow crosses the borders of several countries, and its control could give China significant leverage over its downstream neighbors. Experts have warned that China’s ability to control or divert the river could be used to exert pressure on India and Bangladesh, both of which rely on the river for water and agricultural purposes.
A 2013 report by the Lowy Institute noted that China’s control over rivers like the Yarlung Tsangpo could provide it with a “chokehold” on India’s economy. In response to China’s dam-building ambitions, Indian officials have hinted at the possibility of constructing their own major hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra to mitigate the potential impacts of Chinese actions. Tensions over water resources in the region have already been a source of diplomatic strain between the two countries, and this new development could escalate those tensions.
Engineering Challenges and Safety Concerns
The ambitious scale of the dam also presents major engineering challenges. The Yarlung Tsangpo flows through the world’s deepest canyon, with some sections of the river dropping 2,000 meters within just 50 kilometers. This dramatic topography, while offering substantial potential for hydropower, creates significant risks for construction, especially considering the site’s location along an earthquake-prone tectonic plate boundary.
Chinese engineers have raised concerns about the potential for landslides and mud-rock flows, which are often triggered by earthquakes. A senior engineer from the Sichuan provincial geological bureau warned that these natural disasters could pose significant threats to the project’s safety. The risks associated with constructing such a massive dam in an unstable region could result in unforeseen complications that might undermine its long-term viability.
Conclusion
The approval of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower dam marks a significant step in China’s quest to dominate the renewable energy sector. However, the project raises critical questions about the long-term environmental, social, and geopolitical consequences. While China’s government emphasizes the project’s benefits, such as boosting local prosperity and aiding in climate goals, the dam’s impact on downstream countries, displaced communities, and the delicate Tibetan ecosystem cannot be ignored. As construction begins, the world will be closely watching how China navigates the complex challenges this ambitious project presents.
