Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment didn’t come as a surprise to those familiar with the workings of Kenya’s broad-based government. Since its formation, both Gachagua and his allies were aware that this political clash was inevitable. As the government under President William Ruto extended its coalition to former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the numbers and influence were undeniably shifting. Yet, Gachagua’s situation is complex, involving battles across political, judicial, and public opinion arenas. With these dynamics at play, understanding the road ahead reveals much about the Kenyan political landscape and how it’s shaped by both personal and political agendas.
The Power of Alliances: Ruto and Raila’s Collaboration
The political alliance between President William Ruto and Raila Odinga added to the inevitability of Gachagua’s impeachment. This coalition gave Ruto a stronghold over the National Assembly, providing him the numbers to act on impeachment efforts effectively. This joining of forces was significant, as it created a government bloc that could sideline individuals like Gachagua who were not aligned with the new direction.
With Raila’s influence, Ruto was able to bring together a broader spectrum of political factions, aligning under the shared goal of stability. This consolidation of power made Gachagua’s dissent more glaring, particularly in his public criticism of critical institutions like the National Intelligence Service (NIS). Known for their discreet and often silent roles, the NIS was notably unsettled by Gachagua’s vocal critiques. In a country where political influence often rests on subtle maneuvering, this was a misstep that would significantly weaken his standing.
The Messy Process of Impeachment in Kenya
The structure of Kenya’s government makes the impeachment process arduous, particularly for a high-ranking official like the Deputy President. The system is neither straightforward nor built for rapid execution, which inherently drags out the process. Kenya’s laws do not currently provide a simple path for the removal of a deputy president, and Gachagua’s case is an example of how messy and prolonged this can be.
Impeachment is handled in two primary realms in Kenya: the political arena and the court of law. The first is inherently political, where impeachment proceedings start with votes in the National Assembly and later move to the Senate. Yet, the Senate does not convict or sentence; it instead functions as an investigative body, declaring whether it finds the charges against the Deputy President valid or not.
In Gachagua’s case, the allegations of misconduct were largely political. However, while the Senate’s conclusion holds symbolic weight, the matter does not end there. For a final verdict, the case must move to the judiciary. This is where the real battle is fought, especially in cases that involve allegations that touch on sensitive national matters, such as Gachagua’s criticism of national intelligence bodies. Knowing this, both Gachagua and Ruto’s allies are preparing for a legal showdown, which is likely to be just as contentious as the parliamentary hearings.
The Battle in the Courts
In Gachagua’s eyes, the legal arena represents the main battleground where his future as Deputy President will ultimately be decided. While the impeachment vote may seem definitive, the judiciary will have the final say. Here, Gachagua and his legal team will mount their defense, challenging the validity of the proceedings and potentially casting doubt on the motivations behind them.
Ruto’s team, on the other hand, is preparing for a swift transition. Should the judiciary uphold the impeachment, Ruto is likely to swear in Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as the new Deputy President. For Gachagua, this would mean an extended period of legal battles, potentially spanning years, as he seeks reinstatement. Such a scenario would mean that Gachagua’s fight is not merely about his current position but about vindicating his reputation and influence within Kenya’s political sphere.
The Court of Public Opinion: Gachagua’s Unseen Advantage
One of Gachagua’s unique strengths has been his ability to sway the court of public opinion, a realm often overlooked in formal political proceedings. While his outspoken approach may have cost him allies in the government, it has earned him support among segments of the Kenyan public who resonate with his candid and often confrontational style. By positioning himself as an underdog figure fighting against a powerful coalition, he has garnered a reputation as a leader unafraid to speak his mind.
In Kenya’s deeply political culture, public opinion holds significant weight. The country’s citizens are active participants in political discourse, often treating politics as a form of entertainment as much as a matter of governance. Here, Gachagua’s approach has been highly effective. His criticisms, though unorthodox, have given him a platform to portray himself as a man of the people, someone willing to take on powerful institutions and voice issues that others may avoid. This ability to connect with the public has kept his relevance intact, even as the official proceedings move against him.
For Ruto and his allies, Gachagua’s influence over public opinion poses a challenge. Even if the legal and political processes succeed in removing him, his narrative may still resonate with the public, potentially fueling opposition to Ruto’s administration. In this regard, the court of public opinion becomes an unpredictable but powerful force, one that could shape the country’s political dynamics even after Gachagua’s potential removal from office.
What’s Next for Gachagua and Ruto?
For Gachagua, the road ahead is likely to be a prolonged and complicated battle. Should he lose his position, his next step will be a sustained legal effort to challenge his impeachment and perhaps to clear his name. Even if he is removed from office, his influence in the public sphere ensures that he will remain a figure of significance in Kenya’s political landscape. He has already shown a knack for staying relevant and mobilizing support, even outside of formal power structures.
For Ruto, on the other hand, Gachagua’s removal opens the door to consolidating his government further. By installing Kindiki as Deputy President, Ruto can ensure a more unified administration. Kindiki, known for his measured approach, could bring a new tone to the office, one that aligns with Ruto’s vision of a stable and cohesive government. However, Ruto must also contend with the potential fallout from Gachagua’s popularity and the possibility that he may leverage his public support to build an opposition movement.
Concluding Thoughts: A Shift in Kenya’s Political Landscape?
The impeachment of a sitting Deputy President is no small event in Kenya, a nation where the deputy’s role has traditionally been one of considerable influence. Gachagua’s impeachment not only reveals the intricacies of Kenyan politics but also underscores the dynamic and often volatile nature of political alliances in the country.
As the legal battle unfolds, it will likely become a defining case for future political disputes in Kenya, setting precedents on the powers of impeachment and the resilience of public opinion as a political force. The next months will reveal whether Gachagua can sustain his influence or if Ruto’s administration can move forward unchallenged, but one thing remains certain: Kenyan politics will continue to be as complex and captivating as ever.
