A recent study published in The Lancet reveals that the official Palestinian death toll from the ongoing Gaza war is likely undercounted by around 40%. The research, conducted by academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, used a method known as “capture-recapture analysis” to estimate the number of deaths caused by traumatic injuries between October 2023 and June 2024.
The study estimates that at least 64,260 Palestinians have died due to traumatic injuries during this period, a figure that is 41% higher than the official count provided by the Palestinian Health Ministry. The report highlights that 59.1% of the victims were women, children, and people over the age of 65. The study also notes that a significant number of fatalities were likely not included in official reports, as many bodies remained buried under rubble or were not recorded due to the deteriorating healthcare infrastructure in Gaza.
Israel’s military campaign has severely disrupted Gaza’s healthcare system, with airstrikes on hospitals and raids on medical facilities. The Palestinian Health Ministry, which had previously maintained reliable records, struggled to track deaths after these disruptions. Additionally, electronic communications were affected, making it difficult to maintain accurate death toll records.
A senior Israeli official responded to the study by asserting that Israel’s military went to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties, claiming that no other military in the world has taken such extensive measures to minimize harm to civilians. However, the study also points to significant discrepancies between the official figures and the true death toll.
This new study further underscores the devastating impact of the war on Gaza’s civilian population, revealing the broader humanitarian crisis and highlighting the challenges in accurately documenting the extent of the casualties.
