More than half of all adults and a third of children, teenagers, and young adults worldwide are predicted to be overweight or obese by 2050, according to a new global study published in The Lancet. The research, which spans over 200 countries, reveals alarming trends in the rising rates of obesity, with experts warning that without immediate action, this could lead to a global health crisis.
As of 2021, nearly half of the global adult population around a billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 and older were already overweight or obese. This marks a significant increase from 1990, when the rates were much lower. If these trends continue unchecked, the forecast suggests that by 2050, 57.4% of men and 60.3% of women will be living with these conditions. In raw numbers, this will result in over 1.5 billion people worldwide struggling with obesity or being overweight.
China, India, and the United States are predicted to have the largest populations of overweight or obese adults in 2050. China, with an expected 627 million people affected, will have the highest number, followed by India at 450 million and the USA at 214 million. However, the most dramatic increases are expected in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population affected by overweight and obesity could rise by more than 250%, reaching 522 million. Nigeria is particularly noteworthy, with projections suggesting its population of overweight or obese adults could increase from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population of affected adults.
The study’s authors acknowledge that emerging weight-loss medications, such as Mounjaro and Wegovy, could potentially alter these projections, though their impact has not been factored into the current analysis. Despite this, experts warn that the situation is dire and requires urgent intervention. Governments around the world must act now to implement strategies aimed at preventing a future dominated by obesity-related health issues.
The impact of rising obesity rates is already being felt, especially among younger populations. Obesity rates in children and young teens have surged, with figures jumping from 8.8% to 18.1% for younger children and from 9.9% to 20.3% for young adults aged 25 and under between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, it is predicted that one in three young people will be affected by overweight or obesity, presenting a significant challenge to healthcare systems worldwide.
This trend represents not just a health challenge but also a potential societal disaster. Experts stress that urgent action can still make a difference. Preventing the full-scale global transition to obesity among children and adolescents is possible if immediate prevention strategies are put in place. Targeted efforts to address overweight populations, especially in Europe and South Asia, could help mitigate the rising tide of obesity. In particular, regions such as North America, Australasia, and parts of Latin America, North Africa, and the Middle East, where adolescent obesity rates are set to rise sharply, need urgent, multifaceted interventions.
Failure to address this crisis now will likely lead to the intergenerational transmission of obesity, creating a future generation that faces a higher risk of chronic health conditions, including heart disease, diabetes, and certain cancers. The financial and societal costs of this shift are expected to be immense, placing additional strain on healthcare systems already struggling with the rising tide of chronic diseases.
Experts stress that the time to act is now, before the consequences become irreversible. Governments must prioritize obesity prevention, implement more effective public health policies, and invest in solutions that can curb the growing global health crisis. By doing so, they can avoid a future where obesity becomes the norm, rather than the exception, and prevent the widespread damage to both public health and economic stability.
