Kenya is on the verge of an HIV treatment crisis as the country is set to run out of essential antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) and laboratory supplies by May 2025. A government assessment has raised concerns over dwindling stock levels, warning that thousands of patients could face treatment disruption if urgent measures are not taken. The stock of Tenofovir/Lamivudine/Dolutegravir (TLD), one of the most widely used ARVs, is projected to decline from a 4.9-month supply in January to less than a month’s stock by May. Other ARVs, such as Tenofovir Alafenamide/Lamivudine/Dolutegravir (TAF/3TC/DTG) and Dolutegravir (DTG) 50mg, are also expected to experience significant reductions.
This looming crisis has been linked to the impact of Executive Order Number 14169 issued by the United States government, which re-evaluates and realigns US foreign aid. A briefing document prepared by the Council of Governors (CoG), the National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC), the National Aids and STIs Control Programme (Nascop), and the Kenya Medical Supplies Authority (Kemsa) highlights the heavy reliance of Kenya’s HIV response on external funding. The report states that approximately 80 percent of the country’s strategic HIV commodities are funded through Overseas Development Assistance, making them vulnerable to changes in donor policies.
During a recent consultative meeting in Naivasha on the sustainability of HIV response, Khatra Ali, a board member of the NSDCC and Director of Health at the Council of Governors, confirmed the precarious situation. She noted that existing supplies would only last for about six months and that health facilities were trying to hold onto stock to avoid running out. In response, CoG and the Ministry of Health agencies have urged the government to engage with the Global Fund to expedite the delivery of ARVs initially scheduled for 2026 to avert a full-scale stockout.
Kenya has approximately 1,378,457 people living with HIV, with 1,307,024 adults and 71,433 children currently on Anti-Retroviral Therapy. According to the forecasting and quantification report for the 2024/2025 financial year, the total cost of HIV commodities is estimated at KSh 28 billion. The funding sources include the Global Fund, which contributes $47.4 million (23.3 percent), the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar) at $58.7 million (28.8 percent), and the Government of Kenya at 20 percent. However, there is a funding gap of $72.2 million (35.4 percent) that remains unaddressed.
Pepfar’s funds are primarily managed by USAID, which oversees the procurement and distribution of HIV commodities such as ARVs, viral load testing kits, and other medical supplies. Pepfar allocated $58.7 million (KSh 7.8 billion) to Kenya for HIV health products for the period between October 2024 and September 2025. Nairobi-based Mission for Essential Drugs and Supplies (MEDS) was contracted as the local distributor. However, at the time of the briefing, none of these essential HIV supplies had been delivered to health facilities.
Laboratory commodities, essential for monitoring HIV treatment effectiveness, are also at risk. The stock of Abbott Alinity Viral Load Kits and Roche Viral Load Tests, which are used to measure viral load suppression in HIV patients, will be completely depleted by May unless alternative funding is secured. The absence of these diagnostics could severely impact patient care and the country’s ability to track treatment success.
To prevent a public health catastrophe, the briefing document recommends several urgent measures. These include fast-tracking the procurement of three million ARV packs through the Global Fund before May 2025 and ensuring that Kemsa speeds up the delivery of 150,000 doses of ARVs purchased by the Government of Kenya, which were originally scheduled to arrive in June 2025. Additionally, it suggests that the Kenyan government temporarily take over the distribution of ARVs from the MEDS warehouse at an estimated cost of KSh 1.2 billion.
The report further calls for alternative funding sources to support laboratory reagent procurement, as the US funding freeze has placed essential diagnostics at risk. CoG, NSDCC, Kemsa, and Nascop have warned that failure to act promptly could undermine years of progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS in Kenya. They have urged the government to allocate KSh 8.7 billion immediately to mitigate shortages and stockouts.
International organizations have also expressed concern over the situation. UNAIDS has classified Kenya as the tenth most reliant country on US funding for HIV medication. With the increasing uncertainty of foreign aid, stakeholders stress the need for long-term strategies to ensure a stable and sustainable supply of HIV treatment and diagnostic resources. As the May 2025 deadline looms, swift intervention will be crucial in protecting the lives of those dependent on HIV treatment in Kenya.
