The Igad Climate Predictions and Application Center (ICPAC) has forecasted significant rainfall over southern Kenya and northern Tanzania this week, as warmer-than-average temperatures persist across the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). According to ICPAC’s weekly forecast, these regions may experience “exceptional rainfall amounts exceeding the top 10% on record.”
Rainfall levels between 50 to 200 millimeters are expected to cover most of southern Kenya, central and western Tanzania, and much of Burundi. The heavy downpours may result in isolated flooding, particularly in cross-border areas. ICPAC has urged communities in high-risk regions to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impact.
In contrast, light rainfall below 50 millimeters is anticipated across Rwanda, northern Burundi, southeastern and western Kenya, southeastern Uganda, and eastern Tanzania. The forecast also includes regions along the Red Sea coast.
Temperature-wise, most parts of South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, and southern Sudan are expected to experience moderate to high temperatures ranging from 20 to 32°C. Cooler conditions, with temperatures below 20°C, will likely prevail in central and northern Sudan, central Ethiopia, parts of northern Somalia, and areas of western Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi.
Despite some cooler spots, ICPAC has warned that warmer-than-usual temperatures will dominate most of the GHA region. Coastal areas of Kenya, however, may experience slightly cooler-than-usual temperatures.
The forecast further highlights cautionary heat stress levels in eastern South Sudan, eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia. These regions are advised to prepare for potential heat-related health risks during this period.
As extreme weather patterns persist, local authorities and humanitarian organizations are on high alert to provide support and ensure the safety of affected communities. ICPAC continues to monitor the situation closely, providing regular updates to guide preparations and responses.
