Kenya is bracing for continued heavy rainfall this week as the peak of the short rains season coincides with uncertainties about the La Nina phenomenon, which traditionally brings dry weather. According to the Kenya Meteorological Department, rainfall is expected to persist across many parts of the country, with varying intensities and occasional breaks throughout November, which marks the height of the short rains season.
The heavy downpours are expected to affect regions including the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Southeastern lowlands, the Coast, and parts of Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya. Deputy Director of Climate Services at the Kenya Meteorological Department, Kennedy Thiong’o, indicated that some areas may experience isolated heavy storms, making it important for residents to stay prepared for unpredictable weather patterns.
“The ongoing rains will continue over several parts of the country, with certain regions experiencing stormy conditions. We expect the rainfall to continue throughout the month of November,” said Thiong’o in a recent statement.
While these rains provide relief for agriculture and water resources, particularly in areas previously affected by drought, the looming prospect of La Nina presents a more complicated scenario for Kenya’s weather outlook. La Niña is a climate phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which often results in drier-than-usual conditions across East Africa.
However, forecasters have downscaled the impact of La Niña this year, stating that its onset is now expected to be weak and short-lived. The US Climate Prediction Centre, which closely monitors global weather patterns, announced that the probability of La Niña forming between now and December stands at 57 percent. The weather agency predicts that while La Niña may emerge in the October to December period, it will likely persist only through the first quarter of 2025.
“Despite the higher chances of La Niña forming, it is expected to remain weak and have a shorter duration compared to previous years,” said the US Climate Prediction Centre in a recent report. “This may lead to a less conventional impact, reducing the likelihood of the severe droughts that often accompany La Niña conditions in Kenya.”
Currently, the threshold for an official La Niña event, which is a consistent drop in Pacific Ocean temperatures to at least -0.5 degrees Celsius, has not been met. This has led to some uncertainty, with forecasters revising earlier predictions of a stronger La Niña episode. The continued unpredictability of the phenomenon is attributed to the growing challenges posed by climate change, which has made it increasingly difficult for scientists to predict El Niño and La Niña patterns with accuracy.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding La Niña, the favorable rainfall this year has had a positive impact on food production and prices in Kenya. The increased precipitation has boosted crop yields, helping to lower the cost of staple foods like maize. According to the State Department of Agriculture’s Food and Nutrition Security report, the national average wholesale price of a 90kg bag of maize dropped from Sh3,450 in May to Sh3,250 in June.
This price reduction has been particularly significant for consumers and farmers alike. In Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu counties, where maize production is abundant, the wholesale price for a 90kg bag even fell to as low as Sh2,500. On the other hand, the highest wholesale prices were reported in counties such as Bomet, Busia, and Kwale, where the cost of the same bag reached Sh4,500.
The continued rainfall, coupled with favorable weather conditions, has provided relief for many Kenyans facing food insecurity. It has also allowed farmers to replenish their supplies and benefit from improved market conditions.
In conclusion, while Kenya is experiencing heavy rainfall that brings short-term relief to many sectors, the weather outlook for the remainder of the year remains unpredictable. The weak La Nina currently forecasted may still have an influence on the weather, but it is expected to be far less intense than initially anticipated. In the meantime, Kenyan authorities and residents must remain vigilant to the effects of the changing climate as they adapt to the ongoing fluctuations in weather patterns.
