After a thrilling weekend of Grade One steeplechasing in both Britain and Ireland, the Cheltenham Gold Cup already has a new favorite in Fact To File. However, the prospect of a British-trained winner in jumping’s premier event for 2025 or indeed in the 2020s looks increasingly unlikely.
The Betfair Chase at Haydock on Saturday provided an engaging contest, with Royale Pagaille and Grey Dawning locked in a gripping duel over the final fences. Their fierce battle brought excitement to the stands and offered a welcome respite from the gloom of Cheltenham’s less inspiring scenes the previous week. While their performances were a testament to their grit and determination, the qualities needed to claim Gold Cup glory extend far beyond courage. Royale Pagaille, despite his heroics, has not placed in three previous Gold Cup attempts, and Grey Dawning, though he remains a 16-1 contender, has much to prove before being considered a serious threat.
For Grey Dawning, the race could have ended differently were it not for a slight error at the last fence. Nevertheless, the seven-year-old, trained by Dan Skelton, showed he could be a significant player among British stayers. Skelton plans to give him ample time to recover, with his next outing likely to be in late January or early February. Still, being the standout British staying chaser may not be enough to bridge the gap between Britain and Ireland’s vastly superior chase divisions.
Sunday’s John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown underscored Ireland’s dominance in the sport. Fact To File, alongside Spillane’s Tower, surged past the reigning Gold Cup champion, Galopin Des Champs, before holding off a fierce challenge to claim victory. The race was over two and a half miles, and while Galopin Des Champs remains a strong second favorite for a third Gold Cup, Fact To File’s performance suggests he is on an upward trajectory. As a Grade One-winning novice making his first appearance in open company, there’s every reason to believe he will improve further.
Ireland’s staying chase division continues to operate at a level that British racing struggles to match. This disparity is evident in the field for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday. Long regarded as one of the highlights of the jumps season, the race often showcases future stars. However, it has been years since a Coral Gold Cup winner went on to claim a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Native River, who achieved the feat in the 2016-17 season, was the last to do so, following in the footsteps of Bobs Worth in 2012-13.
The Coral Gold Cup remains a cherished event, with a rich history that includes legends like Arkle, Denman, and Mill House. This year’s edition will undoubtedly deliver compelling drama, but the chances of unearthing a future Gold Cup winner from its field seem remote. Colonel Harry, the likely favorite, is a promising seven-year-old with solid credentials. However, his performances in Grade One events last season fell short of suggesting he could make the leap to the top echelon of staying chasers.
The Betfair Chase and the Coral Gold Cup are essential fixtures in the calendar, offering moments of brilliance and nostalgia for racing fans. Yet their relevance to the Gold Cup picture appears to have diminished, reflecting a broader shift in the balance of power toward Ireland. These races should be celebrated for the spectacle and passion they provide, even if their long-term implications for the Cheltenham Festival are less significant than in years past.
