The year concludes with the Premier League’s bottom three places occupied by the newly promoted teams, highlighting the growing gap between the top flight and the Championship. The trend is concerning, with the previous season also seeing all three promoted sides relegated. The challenge of survival in the Premier League appears increasingly insurmountable for teams making the jump.
Southampton, rooted to the bottom of the table, are ten points adrift of safety. To avoid relegation, they would need to average an extraordinary 1.5 points per game for the remainder of the season a near-impossible task. Despite some improvement since a managerial change, their high-risk, possession-heavy style has often backfired, exposing their lack of Premier League-quality players. Their focus now must shift to avoiding Derby County’s record low of 11 points in a season.
Ipswich, though better off, have struggled to convert competitive performances into victories. Players like Omari Hutchinson and Liam Delap have shown promise, but the team’s inability to secure wins, particularly at home, has left them in a precarious position. They have drawn too many games where a sharper attacking edge might have earned them vital points.
Leicester seem the most equipped to survive, displaying greater composure on the ball compared to their fellow promoted sides. However, their defensive frailty under Ruud van Nistelrooy has been a glaring issue. While recent matches against tough opponents like Liverpool and Manchester City show some defensive improvement, their attack has faltered, scoring just once in the last four games. Leicester’s survival battle may come down to a scrap with Wolves or Everton for the final relegation spot.
While the 2022-23 season saw all three promoted sides Fulham, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest avoid relegation, the circumstances were unique. Fulham and Bournemouth had prior Premier League experience, while Forest’s heavy spending, despite leading to a points deduction, played a key role in their survival. If Southampton, Ipswich, and Leicester are relegated this season, it will mark ten of the last fifteen promoted teams going straight back down.
The statistics paint a grim picture. When the Premier League reduced to 20 teams in 1996-97, promoted sides averaged 44.3 points. Last season, that figure plummeted to 22. This season, the three promoted teams are on track for a record low average of 21.7 points. Simultaneously, relegated teams like Sheffield United and Burnley are thriving in the Championship, benefiting from parachute payments that give them a significant advantage over other second-tier clubs.
This dynamic has created a mezzanine of teams too strong for the Championship but ill-equipped for the Premier League. Proposals to scrap parachute payments could level the Championship playing field but may also reduce investment in promoted sides, further widening the gap.
While promotion to the Premier League should be challenging, the current system risks undermining the league’s competitiveness and the broader appeal of English football. The pyramid structure, which has long been a cornerstone of the game, is threatened by the increasing disparity between divisions. Addressing this imbalance is crucial to preserving the integrity and allure of the English footballing hierarchy.
