Supporters of Tunisian President Kais Saied began celebrating early on Sunday night after preliminary exit polls indicated a decisive victory for the incumbent president in the country’s most recent elections. According to state television, Saied garnered an overwhelming 89.2% of the vote, beating his two competitors—Zouhair Maghzaoui, leader of the Chaab Party, and Ayachi Zammel, who was imprisoned just a month before the election. The official results are expected on Monday evening, but the early poll by the Sigma company suggests Saied is poised to solidify his control over the country.
Despite his apparently commanding win, the election has been marked by low voter turnout, rising political tensions, and accusations that Saied’s government is veering towards authoritarianism. This election, which was seen as a critical test of Tunisia’s democracy, witnessed just 27.7% voter participation, a dramatic drop from the nearly 55% turnout in the second round of the 2019 presidential election. These statistics reflect a broader sentiment of disillusionment among the Tunisian electorate, driven by economic hardship, allegations of corruption, and concerns over the dismantling of key democratic institutions.
Saied’s Rivals: Marginalized and Contested
Kais Saied, 66, faced two prominent challengers in Sunday’s election: Zouhair Maghzaoui, a former ally and now outspoken critic, and Ayachi Zammel, whose imprisonment last month overshadowed his campaign. Both Maghzaoui and Zammel’s campaigns have rejected the exit poll results, expressing skepticism about the legitimacy of the election process. Maghzaoui stated that the final results “will be different” and accused the government of manipulating the electoral process to ensure Saied’s dominance.
Saied’s opponents, however, faced not only political obstacles but legal ones as well. Zammel, in particular, was imprisoned under unclear charges shortly before the election, a move seen by many as emblematic of Saied’s broader crackdown on political opponents. In fact, the most significant opposition parties and figures in Tunisia have found themselves either imprisoned or disqualified from the electoral process. This has created a chilling effect in Tunisian politics, as many of Saied’s opponents have been unable to fully participate in the country’s political life.
Even in the absence of significant competition, Saied’s apparent victory does not reflect widespread enthusiasm. Instead, it reveals the lack of viable alternatives within a heavily restricted political landscape.
Saied’s Revolutionary Message: Popular Appeal Amid Growing Dissent
In his first comments following the release of the exit poll results, Saied framed his electoral success as a continuation of the 2011 revolution, declaring, “This is a continuation of the revolution. We will build and will cleanse the country of the corrupt, traitors, and conspirators.” His rhetoric, focusing on anti-corruption, has been a consistent theme of his presidency. However, many Tunisians—particularly those who participated in the pro-democracy Arab Spring—have grown increasingly wary of Saied’s leadership, fearing that his approach is eroding the very democracy they fought to establish.
The Habib Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis, the historical epicenter of Tunisia’s revolution, became a site of celebration for Saied’s supporters on Sunday. Citizens waved Tunisian flags and carried pictures of the president, chanting, “The people want to build and develop.” Saied’s loyal base views him as a selfless leader dedicated to serving the public and ridding the government of its endemic corruption. “We rejoice for a person because he served the state and not for his own benefit,” said Mohsen Ibrahim, a Saied supporter who was celebrating in Tunis. This sentiment of Saied as a “man of the people” remains one of his greatest political strengths.
However, the celebrations mask a much larger undercurrent of dissatisfaction. The election campaign was marred by accusations of political repression, as senior figures from Tunisia’s largest opposition parties have been imprisoned over the past year. These parties refused to endorse any of the three candidates on the ballot, opting instead to boycott an election they saw as illegitimate. In addition to the legal battles faced by opposition members, other potential candidates were simply barred from running, further restricting the diversity of choices available to voters.
Tunisia’s Democratic Backslide: A Nation at a Crossroads
Tunisia was once hailed as the sole success story of the 2011 Arab Spring, the only country in the region to successfully establish a functioning, albeit flawed, democracy after decades of autocratic rule. The political landscape has shifted dramatically since then, and Saied’s consolidation of power has raised alarm bells both within Tunisia and internationally. In 2021, two years after his election, Saied took a series of unprecedented steps to centralize authority, dissolving the elected parliament and rewriting the country’s constitution.
His actions have been widely described by the opposition as a coup, though Saied has consistently rejected this characterization. He maintains that his moves were necessary to root out a corrupt elite that had paralyzed the country’s progress and to safeguard Tunisia’s future. Rights groups and international observers, however, have accused Saied of reversing many of the democratic gains made since 2011. His government has removed critical institutional checks on power, including the Supreme Judicial Council, which he dissolved in 2022, and the recent stripping of the administrative court’s authority over election disputes.
This erosion of democratic oversight has contributed to increasing political tension within Tunisia. Protests by opposition groups and civil society organizations have become more frequent, and discontent has been amplified by the economic challenges facing the country. While tourism revenues—an essential pillar of Tunisia’s economy—are on the rise, state finances remain deeply strained. The country continues to experience shortages of basic goods like food, power, and water, while inflation continues to climb. Despite financial aid from European countries concerned about migration, the economic outlook for Tunisia remains bleak.
Declining Voter Turnout: A Symptom of Political Apathy
One of the clearest signs of Tunisia’s disillusionment with its political system is the drastic decline in voter turnout. Participation in Tunisia’s elections has steadily decreased since Saied’s election in 2019. A referendum on the new constitution, passed under Saied’s rule, attracted a turnout of only 30%. In January 2023, elections for the newly created parliament saw just 11% of Tunisians go to the polls.
This apathy reflects widespread frustration with Tunisia’s political elite, whom many see as disconnected from the daily realities of ordinary citizens. The country’s economic performance has been dismal, and corruption continues to plague government institutions. For many Tunisians, these issues have become more pressing than abstract ideals of democracy, leading them to disengage from the political process altogether.
What’s Next for Tunisia?
The future of Tunisia’s political system remains uncertain. If the exit poll results are confirmed, Kais Saied will continue to lead Tunisia in what his supporters believe is a righteous fight against corruption and traitors. However, the broader picture suggests that Saied’s presidency could deepen political divisions and exacerbate the country’s economic struggles. His consolidation of power has left Tunisia with fewer democratic institutions capable of holding him accountable, while the opposition remains fragmented and marginalized.
For the international community, Tunisia’s democratic backslide is a troubling development in a region still recovering from the aftermath of the Arab Spring. European nations, in particular, have been closely monitoring the situation due to concerns about migration and regional stability. Saied’s government has received some financial support from Europe, but whether this will be enough to stabilize Tunisia’s faltering economy is uncertain.
As Tunisians await the official election results, one thing is clear: Kais Saied’s vision for the country is taking shape, and with it comes both the promise of reform and the risk of further authoritarianism.
