Vice President Kamala Harris is intensifying her efforts to secure the support of black and Latino voters—two demographics critical to the success of the Democratic Party. Despite maintaining a strong lead among these groups, recent polling data suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is reportedly making inroads with both black and Latino voters, continuing a trend seen in the 2016 and 2020 elections. This could significantly impact the race, especially in battleground states where even modest changes in voter turnout could sway the results.
The stakes could not be higher for Harris, as Democrats have historically relied on overwhelming support from black and Latino voters. However, there is growing concern within the party that she must do more to energize these constituencies. Recent polls, including one conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, show Harris with 78% support among black voters. While this number still reflects a majority, it is a notable decrease from the 90% support Democrats traditionally receive. Black men, in particular, seem to be less enthusiastic, contributing to this shortfall.
The situation is similarly critical among Latino voters, especially in key states like Arizona and Nevada, where their turnout could be decisive. In Arizona, nearly 25% of the electorate is expected to be Latino on Election Day, while in Nevada, Latinos make up almost 20% of the voting population. Georgia, another battleground state, has a black voter base that constitutes about 30% of the total electorate. Harris’s challenge lies not only in maintaining the party’s historical support but also in ensuring that these voters feel motivated to turn out in large numbers.
Economic Concerns Dominate Voter Priorities
A major factor contributing to Trump’s apparent gains among black and Latino voters is the economy, which has emerged as the primary issue for a majority of Americans in the 2024 election cycle. Inflation, the cost of living, and economic insecurity are central concerns, particularly for working-class voters. For many black and Latino voters, these economic pressures have created a sense of dissatisfaction with the current administration, which could explain their openness to Trump’s message.
Quenton Jordan, a 30-year-old black voter from Virginia, once supported Barack Obama but has since shifted his allegiance to Trump. “Inflation has pretty much made it impossible, or extremely challenging, for people to provide basic necessities for their families,” Jordan said, reflecting the tangible financial struggles that have resonated with voters across the country. Jordan, like many others, is drawn to Trump’s promise of economic relief, recalling what he sees as a more favorable economic situation under Trump’s previous administration.
In Nevada, which has a large Latino population, voters are also feeling the pinch of rising living costs. Lydia Dominguez, a Las Vegas resident, expressed that many in the Latino community remember the economy under Trump and feel that the current economic situation under Biden and Harris is unsustainable. “They can’t afford to live,” she explained, emphasizing that economic concerns are no longer a taboo subject when it comes to supporting Trump. “It’s no longer a stigmatism [sic] to support him,” she added, illustrating how the economy is driving voters toward the Republican candidate, even in communities where he has historically faced opposition.
Even among voters who are leaning toward Harris, there is an acknowledgment that “pocketbook” issues are driving some in their communities toward the right. Diego Arancivia, a former Republican voter from Nevada who is now supporting Harris, noted that “lots of people will vote for Trump, on economics alone.” He explained that while many voters may not necessarily like Trump personally, they believe he has the economic tools to improve their financial situations.
Immigration and Border Concerns
In addition to economic issues, immigration and border security have become significant concerns for both black and Latino voters, echoing the broader U.S. electorate. Trump’s campaign has focused heavily on strong border controls and a pledge to deport millions of undocumented migrants, a stance that has found resonance among some voters in these communities.
Black and Latino voters, particularly those living near the U.S.-Mexico border, have expressed frustration with what they perceive as the Biden administration’s mishandling of immigration. Rolando Rodriguez, a former Democrat from Texas who now supports Trump, cited the record migrant crossings under the Biden administration as a major concern. “I live so close to the border, and I have never before witnessed a disaster like the one we’ve seen under Kamala and Biden,” Rodriguez said, highlighting the perception of chaos and danger at the border.
This sentiment is echoed by some black voters, who feel that resources are being diverted away from their communities in favor of immigrants. Quenton Jordan, the Virginia voter, believes that asylum seekers and other foreign nationals are “taking resources that the black community has been asking for for decades.” Trump has seized on these concerns, framing immigration as a threat to black and Latino communities, particularly in terms of job competition and access to public resources.
During a town hall event in Pennsylvania, Trump directly addressed these issues, referring to an “invasion” of undocumented migrants and claiming that it has had a “huge negative impact” on black and Latino communities. This rhetoric, while controversial, appears to resonate with some voters who feel that the Democratic Party has not adequately addressed their concerns about immigration and its impact on their daily lives.
Social Issues and Shifts in Cultural Values
Beyond economics and immigration, social issues have also played a role in driving some black and Latino voters toward Trump. According to political science professor Quadricos Driskel, black male voters, in particular, have become disillusioned with what they perceive as the Democratic Party’s “embrace” of social agendas that conflict with their personal values. Issues related to gender, sexuality, and religious beliefs have created a divide between these voters and the Democratic Party.
“There’s this perception that there has been this assault on masculinity and what that means,” Driskel explained. “I think that’s what some black male voters are railing against.” For these voters, it is not necessarily the Democratic Party itself but rather the cultural shifts within the party that have alienated them.
Clarence Pauling, a 49-year-old black voter from South Carolina, is one such example. A barbershop owner and former police officer, Pauling said that the Republican Party’s views align more closely with his religious values on issues of gender and sexuality. “You can’t go create your own agenda,” Pauling said, criticizing the Democratic Party’s approach to social issues. “[If] you’re going to lead a whole country, you’re supposed to lead them the right way.”
Harris’s Response: A Renewed Focus on Policy
In response to these challenges, Harris has ramped up her outreach efforts to black and Latino voters. This week, her campaign released a policy agenda focused on black men, dubbed the “opportunity agenda for black men.” Harris has also scheduled meetings with black entrepreneurs in key swing states and is engaging with popular black media figures like radio host Charlamagne Tha God in an effort to energize voters.
While Harris works to solidify her support, Trump is continuing to court black and Latino voters, referencing recent polling data that shows his increasing popularity among these groups. “Our poll numbers have gone through the roof with black and Hispanic [voters],” Trump said during a recent campaign event, signaling his confidence in his ability to make gains in these critical demographics.
As the election draws nearer, the battle for black and Latino votes will likely intensify. Both candidates recognize the importance of these voters, and in an election that could be decided by razor-thin margins, their support could ultimately determine the outcome.
