The Kenya-US trade relationship is poised at a critical juncture as the Biden administration and the Ruto government rush to finalize a free trade agreement (FTA) that has been in the works since the Trump era. As President Joe Biden prepares to leave office after stepping down from his re-election bid, the urgency to secure a deal has intensified. The seventh round of negotiations under the Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (STIP) is set to conclude today, with both nations eager to fast-track the agreement.
The negotiations are led by Assistant US Trade Representative Constance Hamilton and Kenya’s Principal Secretary for Trade, Alfred K’Ombudo. The talks have taken on greater significance as the Biden administration seeks to strengthen its economic and security ties with Kenya, East Africa’s largest economy, amid growing Chinese influence in the region.
The Biden administration’s approach to the trade deal marks a departure from the initial framework established under former President Donald Trump. While Trump’s administration launched the FTA negotiations in July 2020, with hopes of creating a model for future agreements across Africa, the Biden administration has focused on recasting the objectives. Instead of pursuing a traditional free trade agreement, Biden’s team has emphasized an “investment partnership with Kenya” that seeks to facilitate trade through non-tariff measures.
This shift in focus has sparked concerns about the US commitment to finalizing the deal. The long-delayed negotiations have been mired in uncertainty, leading to pressure from influential US business groups and lawmakers to return to the original FTA model. They argue that such a deal would benefit both nations, paving the way for increased business and investment opportunities.
One of the driving forces behind the push for a swift conclusion to the deal is the impending expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) in 2025. Agoa allows Sub-Saharan African countries, including Kenya, to export thousands of products to the US without tariffs or quotas. Kenya is keen to secure a new trade deal before Agoa’s expiry, ensuring continued access to the US market.
The broader context of the negotiations includes growing concerns over China’s expanding economic footprint in Africa. President Biden has made it clear that countering China’s influence in global trade is a priority for his administration. A trade deal with Kenya, the first US free trade agreement in Sub-Saharan Africa, would be a significant step in this direction.
Another critical aspect of the negotiations involves genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Washington has been pressuring Nairobi to open its market to American GM food and crop products. Kenya recently lifted a decades-old ban on GM crops in response to severe droughts, aiming to improve crop yields and food security. However, this move has been met with skepticism from Kenyan farmers and health advocates, who have raised concerns about the long-term impacts of GMOs.
As the negotiations reach their final stages, the outcome will have far-reaching implications for US-Kenya relations, the future of trade in Africa, and the broader geopolitical landscape. The Biden administration’s ability to finalize this deal before leaving office could solidify a legacy of strengthened ties with Africa, even as the US navigates the challenges of rising global competition and shifting economic priorities.
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