Kenya is set to experience predominantly sunny and dry weather in 2024, according to the latest forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Department. The weather outlook paints a picture of reduced rainfall and warmer-than-average temperatures, significantly impacting various regions across the country.
Rainfall Ceases in December
The current short rain season, which spans October to December, is expected to end with generally poor rainfall distribution. The ongoing rains will likely cease between the first and fourth week of December in most areas. While rainfall during December is expected to be primarily confined to certain regions, episodes of heavy rainfall may still occur.
Dr. David Gikungu, Director of Meteorological Services, explains, “The northern half of the country is likely to receive occasional rainfall in early December, followed by dry conditions for the rest of December, January, and February.” He adds that rainfall during this period will predominantly affect the southern parts of the country, while the eastern sector will experience below-average precipitation.
Heavy Rains in Select Regions
Despite the anticipated dry conditions, heavy rains are expected in localized areas, particularly the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and the Central and South Rift Valley. Counties likely to be affected include Kisumu, Homa Bay, Siaya, Migori, Kakamega, Bomet, and Narok. Rainfall in these regions is predicted to range from near-average to above-average levels, though it may include occasional breaks.
The forecast also indicates moderate rains in the Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya, encompassing counties such as Nairobi, Nyeri, Murang’a, and Kiambu. These areas are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall for December, with sporadic rainy days.
January and February: Predominantly Dry
As December transitions into January and February 2025, the forecast suggests that most parts of the country will remain dry and sunny. Only a few regions, including parts of the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, southeastern lowlands, and coastal areas, might experience sporadic showers.
The northern, central, and eastern regions are expected to bear the brunt of the heat, with elevated temperatures projected across these areas. “Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average countrywide, particularly in the northern half,” Dr. Gikungu notes.
Implications of Warmer Weather
The expected hot and dry conditions are likely to have significant implications for agriculture, water resources, and public health. Reduced rainfall in agricultural zones, especially in the eastern and northern parts of the country, may impact crop production and livestock farming, potentially exacerbating food insecurity. Additionally, warmer temperatures may increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and water scarcity.
Localized Flooding Risk
Despite the overarching dry forecast, isolated episodes of heavy rainfall and flooding may occur, particularly in flood-prone regions. Residents in vulnerable areas are urged to remain vigilant and take precautionary measures to mitigate the risks associated with sudden downpours.
Preparing for the Months Ahead
The Kenya Meteorological Department advises individuals, farmers, and authorities to prepare for the anticipated dry conditions by conserving water, managing resources efficiently, and implementing climate-resilient agricultural practices. Furthermore, the department will continue to monitor weather patterns and issue timely updates to help communities and sectors plan effectively.
In conclusion, while December will bring scattered rains to some regions, the broader outlook for early 2024 is one of sunny skies and elevated temperatures. As Kenya braces for these conditions, proactive measures will be crucial in minimizing the impact on livelihoods and ensuring resilience against the changing climate.
