The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is at a defining moment in its history, with transition noises growing louder as its leader, Raila Odinga, eyes the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. At the center of the party’s internal struggles is its Secretary-General, Edwin Sifuna, whose rise has unsettled sections of the ODM leadership.
The current turbulence within ODM mirrors the 1994 Ford Kenya succession saga, when Raila lost an internal vote to James Orengo but ultimately captured the party’s support base, reshaping the political landscape. History could be repeating itself, with Sifuna facing similar resistance from ODM’s elite despite his growing appeal among the party’s grassroots.
For weeks, Sifuna has faced relentless attacks from within ODM over his strong opposition to President William Ruto’s administration. However, seasoned party leaders, including acting ODM leader Anyang’ Nyong’o, have come to his defense, emphasizing that Sifuna articulates the official party stance. The intensity of these attacks suggests an orchestrated effort by powerful figures within ODM who fear Sifuna’s influence.
The stakes are high. If Raila secures the AUC chairmanship, ODM will be left without its long-time supremo, creating a fierce battle for succession. Political forces positioning themselves for leadership seem keen to sideline Sifuna, fearing that his growing popularity could threaten their ambitions. However, as history has shown, grassroots support ultimately determines leadership, not elite maneuvers.
Sifuna stands out as the most cosmopolitan leader in ODM after Raila, making him a natural successor if the party seeks to maintain national relevance. Yet, ODM’s internal power struggles have often sidelined merit in favor of tribal alliances and political convenience. Some factions seem determined to suppress Sifuna’s rise, preferring less formidable figures who pose no challenge to their succession calculations.
This weekend’s outcome regarding Raila’s AU bid will set the stage for ODM’s future. If he fails, he might return to lead the party into 2027, managing competing factions. If he succeeds, ODM will be left in a leadership vacuum, triggering an intense battle for control. Either way, the party’s future will depend on who aligns with the people, not just boardroom schemers.
Ultimately, ODM must decide whether to embrace Sifuna’s dynamic leadership or risk internal fragmentation. As history has shown, attempting to suppress emerging leaders often leads to political losses. The real question is: will ODM learn from its past, or will it repeat the mistakes that have cost Kenyan parties before?
