Raila Odinga’s fate could significantly impact Kenya’s political landscape. The February 15–16 vote in Addis Ababa will determine whether the veteran politician secures the prestigious position, effectively marking his exit from active Kenyan politics—or whether he returns, potentially reshaping the 2027 general election.
A win for Raila would be historic, both for Kenya and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). With backing from President William Ruto, his campaign team believes he has the support of at least 28 nations, requiring only a few more for a first-round victory. The main challenge comes from Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, who enjoys strong backing from Muslim and Arab nations.
Should Raila clinch the position, Ruto stands to benefit immensely. The former Prime Minister’s exit from local politics would remove a formidable opponent in the next election, potentially allowing Ruto to inherit a significant portion of Raila’s Luo Nyanza and Western Kenya strongholds. ODM, however, insists it will field its own presidential candidate, despite Raila’s potential absence.
Conversely, if Raila loses, his return to opposition politics could pose a serious threat to Ruto’s re-election. Analysts argue that the President’s support in Mt Kenya has weakened, particularly following Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment. Losing Raila to the AU would have been a strategic victory, but should he remain in Kenya, he could leverage growing public dissatisfaction to challenge Ruto’s administration.
Within ODM, Raila’s possible departure has sparked uncertainty. Some party members fear losing their political lifeline, as their influence largely depends on Raila’s endorsement. Belgut MP Nelson Koech even claimed certain ODM legislators secretly hope Raila’s bid fails, ensuring their continued political survival.
Ruto’s administration is keenly watching the outcome. If Raila wins, Ruto may focus on consolidating support among Raila’s former bases while navigating Mt Kenya’s growing discontent. If Raila loses, the opposition’s momentum could intensify, making 2027 a fierce political battle.
Regardless of the outcome, Raila has pledged to keep ODM strong. Whether leading the AU or Kenyan opposition, his influence on the country’s politics remains undeniable. The next few days will be pivotal in shaping Kenya’s future political trajectory.
