Former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s bid for the position faces significant hurdles. According to former United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi, voting patterns and geopolitical alignments could work against Odinga.
Kituyi explained that while Odinga has been actively campaigning and rallying African leaders for support, historical voting bloc dynamics play a crucial role in the outcome. Speaking on NTV, Kituyi noted that French-speaking African nations tend to vote in unison and often favor a Francophone candidate over a non-Francophone competitor.
This presents a challenge for Odinga, as Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf, a Francophone candidate, stands as a formidable opponent. Given that the Francophone bloc traditionally votes cohesively, Odinga could struggle to secure a substantial portion of this crucial vote.
Another major factor impacting Odinga’s chances is President William Ruto’s foreign policy stance, particularly his support for Israel amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Kituyi pointed out that many African nations with a Muslim majority could align against Odinga due to Ruto’s perceived diplomatic misstep. This could shift votes towards a Muslim candidate, such as Youssouf, further complicating Odinga’s path to victory.
Additionally, the Anglophone bloc, which would typically be expected to support Odinga, is also divided. Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato is another candidate in the race, splitting votes among English-speaking nations and further weakening Odinga’s stronghold. This division could hinder his ability to secure the necessary two-thirds majority required for victory.
Despite these challenges, Odinga and President Ruto have embarked on a vigorous diplomatic campaign. Their outreach efforts have reportedly secured pledges of support from at least 19 African nations, including Kenya, Togo, Gambia, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Equatorial Guinea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Malawi. Others backing Odinga include Tanzania, Uganda, Seychelles, Mauritius, Rwanda, Burundi, Algeria, South Sudan, and Eritrea.
Ultimately, the AUC election will be determined by the strategic voting of African leaders, with geopolitical considerations playing a critical role. While Odinga’s campaign remains robust, Kituyi’s analysis suggests that bloc voting traditions and recent diplomatic alignments may present significant obstacles to his bid.
