Kenya’s bid to secure the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship suffered a major setback as former Prime Minister Raila Odinga lost to Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Youssouf. The election, which saw Youssouf win with 33 votes in the seventh round of voting, has sparked discussions about what led to Kenya’s loss.
Former United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) secretary-general Mukhisa Kituyi has weighed in on the matter, absolving Raila Odinga of blame. Kituyi emphasized that Raila’s loss was not a reflection of his campaign’s shortcomings but rather a result of structural challenges within the AU’s voting patterns.
According to Kituyi, Raila Odinga’s loss was significantly influenced by the entrenched voting patterns within the AU, which did not favor Kenya’s candidate. He explained that the election process has historically been skewed, often favoring francophone countries, making it difficult for candidates from anglophone nations to secure the chairmanship.
A critical factor that worked against Raila was the unwavering solidarity of the francophone bloc. Kituyi noted that despite verbal assurances of support from French-speaking nations, these countries ultimately backed their own candidate. Youssouf’s victory is a testament to the strong influence of the francophone network within the AU’s decision-making process.
Another key factor in Kenya’s defeat was the role played by the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The regional bloc threw its weight behind Madagascar’s candidate, Richard Randriamandrato, further splitting votes that could have potentially benefited Raila. This regional backing weakened Raila’s position and limited his chances of securing the necessary votes to win.
Despite the loss, Kituyi stressed that Raila Odinga remains a highly respected figure across the continent. He argued that Raila’s appeal to African nations surpasses that of President William Ruto. However, he dismissed the notion that Ruto’s lobbying efforts significantly contributed to Raila’s campaign, implying that the election outcome was shaped by broader geopolitical dynamics rather than individual efforts.
With 49 heads of state participating in the vote, the winner needed at least two-thirds of the votes, equivalent to 33. In the end, the alignment of regional and linguistic blocs determined the outcome, rather than the merit of individual candidates.
Kenya’s loss underscores the complexities of AU politics and the need for a more balanced electoral process that ensures fair representation across all regions of Africa.
