Former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga is on the brink of a significant political milestone as he eyes the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson position. Having endured five unsuccessful election bids in Kenya, Raila now turns his attention to the continental stage, where he requires the backing of at least two-thirds of the 55 AU member states equivalent to 33 votes.
If successful, Raila will succeed Chad’s Moussa Faki in a role that wields significant influence over Africa’s policy direction. However, the road to victory remains arduous, with geopolitical intricacies and rival contenders in the mix. Raila faces competition from Djibouti’s Mohamoud Youssouf and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato, making the battle for the AUC top seat highly competitive.
For months, Raila has been actively engaging African leaders in a diplomatic charm offensive to secure their support. His efforts, complemented by Kenya’s President William Ruto, have so far yielded backing from 19 African nations. These include:
- East Africa: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, Eritrea
- West Africa: Togo, Gambia, Senegal, Guinea Bissau
- Central & Southern Africa: Zambia, Zimbabwe, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Equatorial Guinea
- Indian Ocean & North Africa: Seychelles, Mauritius, Algeria
However, Raila’s campaign chair, Elkanah Odembo, suggests that support has surged beyond 28 nations, positioning the Kenyan candidate closer to the required threshold. The final vote, conducted by secret ballot, will determine his fate.
Despite this growing momentum, Raila’s candidacy faces key challenges. The 2017 AUC elections demonstrated how unpredictable the process can be, with Kenya’s then-candidate, Amina Mohamed, losing to Faki after seven voting rounds. Notably, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, and Djibouti did not support Kenya’s bid at the time, underscoring regional complexities.
Raila’s success also hinges on President Ruto’s handling of pressing geopolitical issues, notably the ongoing crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ruto, as East African Community (EAC) chair, plays a crucial role in conflict resolution efforts. His approach to the M23 rebel insurgency and peace negotiations could influence DRC’s stance in the AUC elections.
With the elections in Addis Ababa fast approaching, Raila’s team remains engaged in last-minute diplomacy to secure the required votes. While the backing of 28 nations signals strong prospects, the unpredictability of AU politics means that securing a first-round win is far from guaranteed. The coming days will be critical as Raila seeks to cement his legacy on the continental stage.
