Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s loss in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship race is a major political event, but according to former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) President Nelson Havi, the biggest impact will be felt by President William Ruto. The outcome is seen as a diplomatic blow to Ruto, who had invested significant political and state resources in Raila’s bid.
In a statement shortly after the results were announced, Havi noted that Raila’s elimination in the later rounds of voting was a “bad sign for things to come” for Ruto’s administration. The President had actively championed Raila’s candidacy, engaging African leaders and lobbying on his behalf over the past year.
The AUC elections took place on Saturday, with Raila eliminated after the fifth and sixth rounds of voting, trailing Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato was knocked out earlier in the competition. Eventually, Youssouf secured the necessary 33 votes in the seventh round, where he ran uncontested.
Ruto’s push for Raila’s victory was part of a broader strategy to assert Kenya’s influence within the African Union. He formed a high-level secretariat led by Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei, supported by diplomatic veterans such as former US Ambassador Elkanah Odembo, IGAD executive secretary Mahboub Maalim, and legal scholar Prof. Makau Mutua. The team campaigned tirelessly across regional blocs, securing endorsements from key bodies like the East African Community (EAC), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Despite these efforts, Raila’s diplomatic tour across 29 countries and high-level engagements did not yield the expected results. On Friday, Ruto personally met with several African leaders in Addis Ababa, including Senegal’s Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Angola’s João Lourenço, and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The presence of 100 Kenyan MPs and top government officials in Addis Ababa underscored the administration’s commitment to Raila’s bid.
However, the election’s outcome signals potential challenges ahead for Ruto’s foreign policy and regional influence. The loss raises questions about Kenya’s diplomatic reach and Ruto’s ability to mobilize continental support for major initiatives in the future.
As Kenya regroups, the focus now shifts to how Ruto will recalibrate his strategy to maintain regional relevance in the wake of this diplomatic setback.
