Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship is likely to set the stage for his return to the helm of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). His comeback could provide much-needed leadership and stability amid internal wrangles that have gripped the party in his absence.
On October 12, 2024, Odinga officially stepped down from ODM’s leadership, appointing Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o as the acting party leader. This move was intended to allow Raila to focus entirely on his AUC campaign. However, with that bid now unsuccessful, signs point to a re-entry into active politics as the country inches closer to the 2027 general elections.
During his campaign for the AUC post, Odinga assured his party that he would remain available for consultations. His anticipated return is expected to quell the tensions that have emerged within ODM following his temporary departure. Various party factions have been jostling for influence, with different leaders positioning themselves for the future.
One of the key issues threatening ODM’s unity has been its relationship with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza government. While some leaders argue that ODM should continue holding the government accountable, others advocate for a more cooperative approach, citing the presence of ODM-affiliated leaders in the administration.
Siaya Governor James Orengo has been vocal about maintaining ODM’s opposition stance, warning that losing its identity could have long-term consequences. “We have an identity, and if we lose it for short-term gains, we will pay for it in the future,” Orengo said recently.
However, ODM’s national chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has pushed back, insisting that the party should not antagonize the government unnecessarily. “We are not in a merger; we remain a standalone party. But when your child is inside a house, do you set it on fire? No—you would only be harming yourself,” Wanga remarked.
Meanwhile, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has accused some party members of abandoning the party’s core principles. He insists that ODM must continue to hold the government accountable, even if some of its members are part of it.
With the internal debates threatening party unity, Raila’s return could provide the clarity and leadership ODM needs ahead of 2027. His influence remains crucial in navigating the complex political landscape and ensuring ODM remains a formidable force in Kenyan politics.