Raila Odinga’s failed bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship is set to reshape Kenya’s political landscape as the country heads into the 2027 elections. Had he won, Raila would have exited local politics for at least four years, triggering a succession battle within his political base. However, his loss means he is likely to remain a key player, significantly influencing the next presidential race.
The former prime minister lost to Djibouti’s Ali Youssouf in the election held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. While President William Ruto had supported Raila’s candidature, analysts believe this was part of a broader strategy to push him out of Kenyan politics and consolidate his own 2027 re-election chances. Ruto, facing a discontented Mt. Kenya voting bloc, saw Raila’s support as a potential replacement for the restive region.
Now that Raila is back in the local scene, his role in the 2027 elections is uncertain but undeniably significant. Political analyst Martin Andati suggests Raila could return more energized and choose to run for president, which would completely alter the race’s dynamics. Alternatively, he could take on the role of a kingmaker, determining the fate of those seeking the presidency.
Raila’s strongholds in Nyanza, Western, Nairobi, Coast, and parts of North Eastern remain intact. If he backs a candidate, he brings with him influential regional leaders such as Hassan Joho at the Coast and Wycliffe Oparanya in Western. This makes his endorsement highly sought after by political contenders, including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who has long anticipated Raila’s backing.
On the other hand, Raila may opt to negotiate with Ruto for a bigger stake in government. Analysts argue that his decision will either solidify or weaken Ruto’s re-election bid. If Raila chooses to support the opposition, he could unite discontented regions and form a formidable challenge to Ruto’s presidency.
As the dust settles on his AUC loss, Raila’s next moves will shape Kenya’s political future. Whether he runs, backs an opposition candidate, or aligns with Ruto, his influence in the 2027 elections is unquestionable. The political realignments set in motion by his return will dominate the country’s political discourse in the coming months.
