President William Ruto’s political future has been dealt a significant blow following Raila Odinga’s defeat in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson elections. The loss has not only shattered hopes of solidifying the broad-based government but has also thrown a wrench into Ruto’s 2027 re-election strategy.
Ruto had pinned his hopes on Raila’s victory at the AUC, expecting to inherit the former Prime Minister’s voter bases and goodwill, particularly in Nyanza and Western Kenya. This would have been crucial in counterbalancing the political fallout from his rift with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which culminated in Gachagua’s impeachment. With the Mt Kenya region now firmly against Ruto, he had hoped that Raila’s AU appointment would facilitate a smoother consolidation of power ahead of the next general election.
However, Raila suffered a setback in the elections, losing to Djibouti’s Mahamoud Youssouf in the seventh round of voting. His defeat has led to renewed political calculations, with speculation rife about potential realignments. Raila’s statement that he has “a lot of work to do” upon returning home signals that he may not be exiting the political stage anytime soon.
The broad-based government, formed on the premise of mutual benefit, now stands on shaky ground. Political analysts argue that with Raila’s AUC ambitions crushed, his motivations for sticking with Ruto may diminish, leading to a potential rift between the two leaders. According to political consultant Daniel Wangui, “The broad-based government was formed under the illusion that everyone would win. With Tinga (Raila) losing, there will be realignments.”
Further complicating matters for Ruto is the mounting political opposition led by Gachagua, who has wasted no time in attempting to court Raila. In a veiled invitation, Gachagua remarked, “Africa needed you [Raila] most, but God found that Kenya…we Kenyans, your beloved brothers and sisters, have unfinished business with you as their coveted son as we unshackle our country from recklessness.” This statement indicates a brewing alliance that could seek to deny Ruto a second term.
Despite the looming political storm, some leaders within Ruto’s camp remain hopeful. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki has urged Ruto and Raila to ignore political detractors and maintain their working relationship. “We just want to ask that the President and ex-PM, and all the leaders will continue working together,” Kindiki stated.
As Parliament braces for a showdown over the majority side ruling by Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, Ruto must navigate treacherous political waters. Whether Raila remains an ally or joins forces with Ruto’s detractors will significantly shape Kenya’s political landscape leading up to 2027.
