Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni has warned that the current divisions in both the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the opposition could make it easier for President William Ruto to secure a second term in 2027.
Speaking on NTV, Kioni noted that both UDA and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are experiencing internal splits that are reshaping Kenya’s political landscape. He described the situation as a potential advantage for President Ruto, as the divided opposition could fail to present a strong challenge in the next election.
“In UDA, there is UDA A, which fully supports the government, and UDA B, which is loyal to impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua,” Kioni explained. “In ODM, we now have ODM A, which remains strongly opposed to Ruto’s administration, and ODM B, which has decided to support the government heading into 2027.”
The divisions in ODM have been growing, particularly after opposition leader Raila Odinga’s unsuccessful bid to become the African Union Commission chairman. His decision to work with President Ruto in recent months especially following the anti-government Gen Z protests has left some ODM members questioning their party’s direction.
At the same time, the friction within UDA has become more pronounced, with some leaders rallying behind Gachagua, who has been sidelined by Ruto’s administration. The struggle for influence in the Mount Kenya region has further deepened the cracks, making it unclear how the ruling party will approach the 2027 elections.
Kioni believes that unless these internal conflicts are resolved, the opposition will fail to mount a serious challenge against Ruto’s re-election. “If this confusion in the opposition continues, it will hand President Ruto another five-year term,” he stated.
Despite the shifting political alliances, Kioni distanced himself from any faction within ODM or UDA, emphasizing that he remains committed to opposing Ruto’s administration.
With the 2027 elections still more than three years away, Kenya’s political landscape remains unpredictable. However, if the opposition remains divided, Ruto could find himself in a strong position to secure a second term with little resistance.
