As Kenya approaches the short rains season, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a concerning forecast indicating that the period from October to December 2024 is likely to experience depressed rainfall. According to Dr. David Gikungu, Director of KMD, this forecast is attributed to a mild La Niña event that is expected to influence weather patterns over the coming months.
Forecast Overview
The short rains season, which traditionally spans from October to December, is anticipated to commence between the third and fourth week of October. This period marks the onset of the rains in Central Kenya and Nairobi. However, the intensity and distribution of rainfall are expected to be significantly below average due to near-average surface temperatures over the western stretch of the Indian Ocean, a key factor influencing the ongoing La Niña conditions.
Dr. Gikungu’s outlook suggests that the cessation of the rains is predicted to occur between the fourth week of November and the first week of December 2024. Despite the overall depressed rainfall, isolated incidents of storms and flash floods are still likely, which could impact areas that are already expected to receive lower amounts of rainfall.
Implications for Various Regions
The forecast highlights several counties that are set to experience near-average to below-average rainfall. These include Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega, Bungoma, Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay, Nyamira, parts of Migori, Kisii, Kericho, West Pokot, Nandi, Bomet, Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet, and parts of Nakuru, Narok, Laikipia, Turkana, and Samburu.
Counties projected to receive notably below-average rainfall include those in Central Kenya such as Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, and Kiambu. Nairobi County and parts of the Eastern Region, including Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi, are also expected to face depressed rainfall. Southeastern Kenya counties such as Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui, along with North Eastern Counties like Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, and Isiolo, are similarly forecasted to experience reduced rainfall.
In the Coast Region, areas including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Tana River are also anticipated to receive less rainfall than usual. Additionally, the South, North, and Central Rift Valley regions, including Kajiado, parts of Narok, Laikipia, Samburu, Nakuru, and South Nyanza (particularly parts of Migori), are likely to witness reduced rainfall.
Potential Impacts
The expected depressed rainfall is a significant concern for Kenya’s agricultural sector, which relies heavily on the short rains for crop cultivation and livestock watering. The reduction in rainfall could affect food security and water availability, exacerbating existing challenges faced by communities dependent on these rains for their livelihoods.
Furthermore, Dr. Gikungu has highlighted potential risks related to elevated water levels in the Rift Valley lakes, which may lead to flooding in surrounding areas. Such flooding could pose additional risks to infrastructure and communities living in these regions.
The forecast also raises concerns about possible flash floods resulting from isolated storms in areas with depressed rainfall. These flash floods could impact already vulnerable regions, leading to further challenges for affected communities.
Conclusion
As Kenya prepares for the short rains season, the forecast of depressed rainfall underscores the need for preparedness and adaptive measures. Communities, especially those in the regions predicted to face the most significant impacts, should be proactive in managing water resources and preparing for potential flooding. The KMD’s insights serve as a crucial reminder for stakeholders to remain vigilant and to implement strategies that mitigate the effects of reduced rainfall and associated risks.
