As Kenya moves into the October-November-December (OND) short rains season, the country’s meteorological service has issued a cautionary forecast. According to Dr. David Gikungu, Director of Meteorological Service, two-thirds of the country will experience below-average rainfall, prompting a call for anticipatory action.
Weak La Niña Conditions Expected
The forecast points to weak La Niña conditions developing between September and November 2024, characterized by cooler-than-average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. These conditions, coupled with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, are expected to result in depressed rainfall across much of Central and Eastern Kenya.
“This season, we expect to see below-average rainfall in the Central and Eastern parts of the country, driven by these oceanic and atmospheric conditions,” said Dr. Gikungu. Despite this, the meteorologist emphasized that “the region could still receive occasional storms during the dry season.”
Regional Variations in Rainfall
While a significant portion of Kenya is expected to face dry conditions, the forecast indicates some variability across regions. The Western part of the country, including the Lake Basin region, is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the OND season. The Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, and the Central and South Rift Valley, including counties like Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and Trans Nzoia, are anticipated to experience near to slightly above-normal rainfall. However, even in these areas, occasional dry spells are expected throughout the season.
Conversely, most of the Coastal region, the Northeast, and the Southeastern lowlands are forecasted to receive below-average rainfall. The Southeastern Lowlands, including counties like Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta, are likely to experience intermittent rainfall with totals below the long-term average for the season.
Implications Across Various Sectors
Dr. Gikungu highlighted that the predicted rainfall distribution could have both negative and positive impacts across various sectors. The poor distribution of rainfall, marked by prolonged dry spells and occasional isolated storms, could affect agricultural productivity, water resources, and disaster preparedness. “Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most parts of the country, which may exacerbate the effects of the anticipated below-average rainfall,” he added.
In Northwestern counties like Turkana and parts of Samburu, occasional rainfall near to slightly above the long-term average is expected. However, the distribution is likely to be poor, with prolonged dry spells anticipated. Similarly, Northeastern counties such as Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo are expected to receive below-average rainfall, with extended dry spells, especially in the Coastal counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale.
Temperature Projections
The temperature forecast indicates that most of Kenya will experience warmer-than-average conditions, with only a few areas in the western sector, such as parts of the Rift Valley, expecting near-normal temperatures. “Higher probabilities for warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the Central and Eastern regions of the country,” Dr. Gikungu stated.
Call for Anticipatory Action
The meteorological service’s forecast urges stakeholders, including government agencies, farmers, and disaster response teams, to prepare for the possible impacts of the anticipated dry conditions. This includes adopting water conservation measures, drought-resistant crops, and other resilience strategies to mitigate the effects of below-average rainfall.
The OND short rains season is crucial for agricultural activities and water resources across Kenya. As such, the forecasted below-average rainfall poses challenges to both food security and water availability. Dr. Gikungu emphasized the need for proactive planning, stating, “With anticipatory action, we can reduce the potential negative impacts of the upcoming dry season.”
As Kenya braces for the short rains season, the focus remains on preparedness and resilience in the face of potentially challenging weather conditions.
