Recent updates from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggest that La Niña conditions may emerge over the next few months. However, experts predict that if it does occur, it will be a short-lived and weak event. The potential development of La Niña is being closely monitored, but its cooling effects on global weather patterns are expected to be minimal, especially considering the broader context of ongoing human-induced climate change.
La Niña, characterized by the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, can disrupt typical weather patterns. It often leads to changes in tropical winds, pressure systems, and rainfall, particularly in tropical regions. However, La Niña’s cooling effects are temporary and generally don’t offset the long-term warming caused by human activity, which is driving global temperatures to new highs.
Currently, neutral conditions prevail, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is dominating the Pacific. The WMO has noted a 55% chance that La Niña will emerge between December 2024 and February 2025. However, this is expected to be a brief occurrence, with neutral conditions likely to return by the second quarter of 2025. Despite this, 2024 is already on track to be the hottest year on record, with or without La Niña.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized that even if La Niña does arrive, its cooling effects would be insufficient to counterbalance the ongoing trend of global warming. “The year 2024 started with El Niño and is on track to be the hottest on record. A potential La Niña will not reverse the extreme heat caused by the record levels of greenhouse gases,” she stated.
The year has already witnessed a series of extreme weather events, including unprecedented rainfall and flooding. These events are becoming increasingly common as a result of both natural climate phenomena and the influence of climate change. While La Niña may briefly cool the Pacific, it will not change the fundamental trajectory of our warming climate. As such, seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña remain essential tools for understanding and managing climate risks, helping to inform early warnings and necessary actions for climate-sensitive sectors.
In conclusion, while La Niña’s potential development is worth monitoring, it’s unlikely to provide much relief from the broader challenges posed by global warming. As extreme weather events continue to disrupt lives across the globe, long-term action to mitigate climate change remains a pressing priority.
