Maize farmers in Kenya experienced a notable shift in the market in June 2024, as the national average wholesale price for a 90kg bag of maize decreased significantly. According to the Food and Nutrition Security Report released by the State Department of Agriculture, the price dropped from Sh3,450 in May to Sh3,250 in June. This Sh200 decrease per 90kg bag is attributed to favorable weather conditions, increased supply, and market dynamics.
The highest wholesale prices were reported in Bomet, Busia, and Kwale, where a 90kg bag of maize was sold for Sh4,500. Conversely, the lowest prices were observed in Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu counties, where a 90kg bag was priced at Sh2,500.
“The decline in prices is attributed to good maize production in 2023. By the end of the month of June, the average retail price of a two-kilo packet of unga was Sh129 in supermarkets in Nairobi,” the report noted.
Surplus and Market Stability
The maize balance sheet projected to the end of September 2024 indicates a surplus of approximately 28.3 million 50kg bags. This projection is based on carryover stocks of 35.2 million bags in June and an estimated 1.35 million bags as forecast imports over the next three months. The report also highlights that about 20.5 million bags planted early in January will be harvested from low-altitude counties, including Bomet, parts of Narok, Nyamira, and parts of Migori.
“The improved crops production in 2023 and improved local supplies of most food staples continue to impact the importation of most basic staples, with a general declining trend since January 2024,” the report states.
Decline in Maize Imports
The total imports of maize have been on a decreasing trend since March 2024. In June, maize imports decreased further from 516,151 (50kg) bags in May to 389,778 bags, compared to 633,555 bags imported in March. The majority of these imports came from Tanzania, with considerable amounts also sourced from Uganda. Notably, between January to June 2023, a total of 7.9 million bags had been imported. However, for the same period in 2024, only 2.5 million bags were imported, indicating the government’s goal of reducing import dependencies is being achieved if the trend continues.
Improved Food Security
National food security improved significantly in June as most staple foods were available in both households and markets. The report highlights that the prices of basic staples, especially cereals and pulses, continued to decline in June as farmers released their stockpiled supplies into the market, driven by lower prices compared to last year. This was primarily due to the decreased prices of cereals, pulses, roots, and tubers. However, prices for some commodities like cabbage, spinach, and kale (sukuma wiki) saw a slight increase in June compared to May.
Crop Conditions and Harvesting
In June, long rains seasonal crops were at reproductive stages to maturity across all counties. The consumption of green maize increased in Nyanza and eastern regions, while harvesting continued for pulses, thereby improving household food security. However, southeastern lowlands and coastal regions experienced a dry spell after early cessation of rains, which forced crops to mature faster, and in some cases, dry up. Despite these challenges, crop conditions were generally good in other parts of the country. Efforts to control fall armyworm continued in areas where maize crops were in the late vegetative stages.
In conclusion, the significant drop in maize prices in June 2024, driven by higher production and favorable market conditions, has positively impacted food security in Kenya. With a projected surplus and a decline in maize imports, the country’s agricultural sector is showing promising signs of stability and growth.
