Manchester City’s recent struggles on the field have raised questions about their decline, but the situation is more nuanced than it appears. While the team has certainly experienced a tough patch, the data suggests they aren’t performing as poorly as their results might indicate. Despite a series of defeats, Manchester City still ranks highly in key metrics such as expected goals (xG), a measure of the quality of chances created. This suggests that, on paper, they are still creating the opportunities to win games. However, the team’s actual performances have been far from their usual standards, and there are clear signs of a deeper issue at play.
One of the key factors behind City’s struggles is the loss of confidence among key players. The likes of Bernardo Silva, Kevin De Bruyne, and Ilkay Gündogan, once stalwarts of the team, have not been performing at their usual levels. Gündogan, in particular, has spoken about the team’s mental struggles, acknowledging how small mistakes have compounded and led to a loss of rhythm. This drop in confidence has been evident in the performances of other players too. Even Ederson, a goalkeeper usually known for his composure, has shown signs of inconsistency, while Erling Haaland, despite his goal-scoring prowess, has missed chances he would normally bury.
The emotional aspect of football is a powerful force, and it seems to be having a significant impact on City’s current form. As confidence wanes, the team’s ability to perform simple tasks at the right time diminishes. The mental toll of a series of poor results can make players hesitate, second-guess themselves, and ultimately perform below their capabilities. This is a cycle that is difficult to break, as one mistake often leads to another, and the team becomes trapped in a downward spiral of frustration and self-doubt.
In addition to the mental challenges, City’s squad is also dealing with a number of injury issues that have disrupted their rhythm. Rodri, arguably their most important midfielder, has been sidelined with a long-term injury, leaving a significant gap in the team’s midfield. His absence has been keenly felt, particularly in high-pressure situations where his ability to control the game and break up opposition attacks is crucial. Without Rodri, the team has struggled to maintain the same level of control in the middle of the park, and the defensive midfield position has been a weak spot.
The lack of squad depth has also been a concern. City’s midfield, once one of the most dynamic and effective in Europe, now looks vulnerable. The combination of aging players and injuries has left Guardiola with fewer options in key areas. The departure of players like Cole Palmer and Julián Álvarez has further weakened the squad, and while the team’s financial strength means they can afford to make reinforcements, the decision to sell these players has raised questions about Guardiola’s squad management. Palmer, in particular, has been a standout performer at Chelsea, and many believe he could have contributed significantly to City’s attack this season.
Looking ahead, it’s clear that Manchester City will need to make some key signings if they are to challenge for the title this season. A top-class midfielder is urgently needed to replace Rodri and provide more stability in the middle of the park. The club has been linked with several potential targets, and with their strong financial position, they are in a good position to make a move. A player like Martin Zubimendi, who impressed during Euro 2024, could be the ideal replacement for Rodri and provide the team with the quality they have been missing.
Guardiola’s loyalty to his key players has been both a strength and a weakness. While it’s understandable that he would trust the players who have helped him achieve so much, there comes a point when a fresh approach is needed. The current squad is showing signs of fatigue, both physically and mentally, and it may be time for Guardiola to make some difficult decisions. The sale of Palmer, in particular, has been questioned, with many feeling that he could have been a key player for City this season. His departure to Chelsea, where he has been in excellent form, now looks like a missed opportunity.
In addition to player acquisitions, City will need to work on rebuilding their mental resilience. Confidence is a fragile thing, and the team’s recent slump has shown how quickly it can evaporate. Guardiola will need to find a way to restore belief in his players and get them back to playing with the fluidity and confidence that has been a hallmark of his teams in the past. This will require a combination of tactical adjustments, psychological support, and perhaps a change in approach to how the team plays.
While Manchester City’s current form is far from ideal, there are still reasons to believe they can turn things around. The underlying data suggests that they are still creating enough chances to win games, and with the right additions to the squad and a boost in confidence, they could quickly return to their best. Guardiola’s experience and tactical acumen will be crucial in guiding the team through this difficult period, but the emotional and mental aspects of the game will need to be addressed if they are to regain their dominant form.
