The UEFA Champions League group stage will witness a heated encounter as Real Madrid host Borussia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabéu. This clash serves as a rematch of the 2023-24 Champions League final, where Real Madrid clinched their 15th European title in dramatic fashion. Dortmund, despite dominating much of that final, saw their hopes shattered by two late goals from the Spanish giants. With both teams vying for dominance, this showdown promises to be a high-stakes affair between two European heavyweights.
Real Madrid: Current Form and Challenges
Real Madrid’s remarkable Champions League success last season reaffirmed their status as the masters of Europe. Under the guidance of Carlo Ancelotti, the team outmaneuvered their competition to claim yet another trophy. However, the reigning champions have experienced moments of vulnerability this season. Their unbeaten Champions League run, which spanned 17 months, came to an unexpected halt when Lille pulled off a stunning 1-0 upset, thanks to a goal from Jonathan David.
Despite this setback, Madrid opened their campaign with a solid 3-1 victory over Stuttgart. As of now, they find themselves outside the seeded knockout slots, sitting 17th in the expanded 36-team group stage table. Ancelotti’s men have responded well to the Lille defeat, securing consecutive wins in La Liga against Villarreal and Celta Vigo, which temporarily propelled them to the top of the domestic standings alongside arch-rivals Barcelona.
Their defensive performances, however, leave room for improvement. Madrid have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five Champions League fixtures at home, but their record at the Bernabéu remains formidable. They have not lost a European home match since April 2022, highlighting the challenge Dortmund will face.
Borussia Dortmund’s Momentum
For Dortmund, managed by former midfielder Nuri Sahin, the Champions League has been a welcome escape from their inconsistent Bundesliga form. The German club leads the group stage table, having recorded back-to-back victories against Club Brugge and Celtic. Their 7-1 thrashing of Celtic, with Karim Adeyemi scoring a hat-trick, showcased the attacking prowess they possess.
Domestically, though, Dortmund have been erratic. They managed a narrow 2-1 win over St. Pauli but stumbled in away games, suffering defeats to Stuttgart and Union Berlin. As they head to the Bernabéu, their away form will be under scrutiny. Historically, Dortmund have struggled in Madrid, failing to secure a win in seven previous visits. A new low could be set if they leave without a victory for the eighth time, a record no club wishes to hold.
Tactical and Lineup Considerations
Real Madrid enter the game with some notable absences. Dani Carvajal and David Alaba are both sidelined with knee injuries, while Brahim Diaz is recovering from an abductor problem. Ancelotti will likely rely on Lucas Vázquez to cover for Carvajal at right-back, although there are rumors the club might pursue Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold in January. On the left, Ferland Mendy could replace Fran Garcia to offer more defensive solidity. In attack, Kylian Mbappé has shaken off a recent muscle issue, meaning he should partner Vinícius Jr. and Rodrygo up front.
Midfield dynamics will also be worth watching. Aurelien Tchouaméni, who left a recent training session early, may make way for Rodrygo, with Jude Bellingham and Federico Valverde providing additional creativity and physicality. With El Clásico against Barcelona looming, Madrid might be cautious about overexerting key players.
For Dortmund, Adeyemi’s hat-trick heroics against Celtic came at a price, as the German forward suffered a hamstring injury that will sideline him until late November. Dortmund are also without Julien Duranville, Giovanni Reyna, and Yan Couto due to various injuries. Pascal Gross and Niklas Süle are listed as doubtful, with Gross having been substituted at halftime in the recent win over St. Pauli.
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, a promising young English talent, could step in if needed. If he manages to score, he will break the record for the youngest English player to score against Real Madrid in the Champions League, a feat previously achieved by Alan Smith for Leeds United in 2001.
Dortmund’s probable formation will see a strong defensive line with Nico Schlotterbeck and Ramy Bensebaini anchoring the back. Captain Emre Can and Marcel Sabitzer are likely to command the midfield, providing a mix of grit and distribution. Up front, the dangerous Serhou Guirassy will be Dortmund’s main goal threat, with Donyell Malen and Julian Brandt operating behind him to stretch the Madrid defense.
Tactical Battle
This encounter will revolve around Real Madrid’s ability to break down Dortmund’s defense while managing transitions effectively. Madrid thrive on controlling possession, but Dortmund’s counterattacking speed despite the absence of Adeyemi could expose vulnerabilities, especially with Madrid’s tendency to leave space behind their full-backs.
Jude Bellingham will be a key figure for Madrid, not only for his technical ability but also due to his familiarity with Dortmund from his time at the club. His advanced role could allow him to exploit pockets of space between Dortmund’s defense and midfield. Vinícius Jr.’s pace on the left flank will pose another major threat, especially if Dortmund’s full-backs venture too far forward.
On the other hand, Dortmund will likely focus on disrupting Madrid’s rhythm through aggressive pressing and swift counterattacks. Serhou Guirassy’s clinical finishing will be crucial in any goal-scoring opportunities the visitors manage to create. If Julian Brandt and Donyell Malen can find space to operate, they will look to feed Guirassy with precise through balls and crosses.
Prediction
This matchup has all the ingredients for an entertaining and closely fought contest. Real Madrid, with home advantage and a wealth of experience, remain the favorites, but Dortmund’s attacking capabilities cannot be underestimated. The absence of Adeyemi will undoubtedly hamper the visitors, but they still possess enough firepower to trouble Madrid’s defense.
Given both teams’ recent form and the stakes involved, the game could see goals from both sides. However, Madrid’s composure in high-pressure situations and their ability to raise their game in the Champions League may tip the balance in their favor. A narrow 2-1 victory for the hosts seems the most likely outcome, keeping them on course for qualification while sending Dortmund back to Germany with valuable lessons learned.
Probable Lineups
Real Madrid (4-3-3):
- Goalkeeper: Courtois
- Defenders: Vázquez, Militão, Rüdiger, Mendy
- Midfielders: Bellingham, Tchouaméni, Valverde
- Forwards: Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.
Borussia Dortmund (4-2-3-1):
- Goalkeeper: Kobel
- Defenders: Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini
- Midfielders: Can, Sabitzer
- Attacking Midfielders: Malen, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens
- Forward: Guirassy
This Champions League encounter will not only offer a chance for Real Madrid to reassert their European dominance but also provide Dortmund with an opportunity to prove they can compete with the continent’s elite. Fans can expect an electrifying night at the Bernabéu, as both teams aim to leave their mark on the group stage.
