Mauritius has thrown its weight behind Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the position of African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson ahead of the February 2025 elections. President William Ruto revealed in a statement on Tuesday that he had spoken with the newly-elected Prime Minister of Mauritius, Navinchandra Ramgoolam, who assured him that the island nation would cast its vote in favor of Raila Odinga.
The endorsement from Mauritius is seen as a major boost for Raila’s bid, signaling a potential withdrawal of Mauritius’s own candidate, Anil Kumarsingh Gayan, from the race. In his statement, President Ruto expressed his congratulations to Ramgoolam on his recent election and emphasized the strong and cordial diplomatic ties between Kenya and Mauritius. He added that the prime minister confirmed Mauritius’s support for Raila’s candidacy.
Raila Odinga, who has stepped back from local politics to focus on the AU chairperson role, is vying to succeed Chad’s Moussa Faki Mahamat, whose tenure will end in February 2025. However, he faces stiff competition from other prominent candidates, including Mahamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister, and Richard Randriamandrato of Madagascar. Analysts suggest that Youssouf, a Francophone candidate, has garnered significant backing from French-speaking African nations, creating an uphill battle for Raila in this highly competitive race.
Raila’s campaign has now entered a crucial phase as he intensifies efforts to secure the support of African countries. Following his endorsement from Mauritius, the race is effectively down to three contenders. Raila, Youssouf, and Randriamandrato will be the main candidates in the upcoming elections, where voting will take place by secret ballot. Raila has already begun organizing back-to-back campaigns in Francophone countries to secure votes, with a particular focus on winning over key French-speaking nations in Africa.
A campaign calendar shared by Raila’s head of campaigns, Ambassador Elkanah Odembo, highlights the candidate’s upcoming diplomatic visits. The first stop is Abuja, Nigeria, where Raila will meet President Bola Tinubu. This visit holds particular significance, as Abuja is the seat of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an influential regional bloc with 15 member states. Raila’s itinerary also includes stops in Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo, and Cape Verde as part of his bid to consolidate support across the continent.
In addition to West African nations, Raila has plans to visit South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Botswana, further expanding his outreach efforts. This extensive campaign is aimed at gathering support from both English-speaking and French-speaking nations, as well as appealing to countries in Southern Africa. Raila’s team is confident that his diplomatic outreach will help him navigate the challenges posed by the complex political landscape of the AU.
The AU chairperson race is likely to be influenced by several factors, including the candidates’ age, religious backgrounds, and regional alliances. Analysts have noted that the historical pattern of past AU chairpersons suggests a regional balance, with candidates hailing from Western, Central, and Southern Africa. This could give Raila an advantage, particularly if the need for regional balance outweighs other factors such as language or political affiliations.
The outcome of the election will also be influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics on the African continent, such as the growing influence of countries like Russia and China. These emerging forces, along with the traditional influence of Western powers, could shape the votes and preferences of African nations as they decide on the next leader of the African Union.
Raila’s candidacy is poised to reshape Kenya’s diplomatic relations and increase its influence on the continental stage. With Mauritius now in his corner, the former Prime Minister’s campaign for the AU Commission Chairperson has gained significant momentum, but the final outcome will depend on his ability to rally more support and navigate the complexities of African diplomacy in the months leading up to the election.
