National Treasury and Economic Planning Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi has voiced strong support for further reductions in interest rates. His statements, made during a recent press briefing on the 50th day of his tenure, highlight a strategic approach aimed at boosting private sector lending and, ultimately, fostering job creation across the country.
A Call for Reduced Lending Rates
CS Mbadi emphasized that lowering the benchmark interest rate is essential to enhance liquidity within the market. He believes that reducing lending rates will incentivize banks to extend credit to private businesses, which are crucial for job creation. “The solution to the economy is to see how to reduce the lending rates that the banks would lend to the private sector,” he stated. “We want the interest rates to come down so that banks can give more money to private businesses to create more job opportunities and for people to have money in their pockets.”
The urgency of this call for action is underscored by the recent decisions made by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). During its fifth meeting on October 8, 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the Central Bank Rate (CBR) by 75 basis points, bringing it down to 12% from 12.75%. This marks the second consecutive reduction of the benchmark rate this year, a move that Mbadi hopes will stimulate economic growth.
Analyzing the Credit Landscape
Despite the recent reductions in the CBR, the current landscape for private sector credit remains concerning. Data from the CBK shows that credit from commercial banks to the private sector has declined to 1.3% in August 2024, down from 3.7% earlier. This drop has been attributed to various factors, including the appreciation of the Kenyan shilling and the delayed effects of previous monetary policy tightening measures. Dr. Thugge from the CBK pointed out that, when adjusting for the exchange rate’s impact, private sector credit would have shown a growth of 4.3% rather than the reported 1.3%. However, this still indicates a worrying deceleration in credit flow to the private sector.
In contrast, credit through Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs) has surged, increasing to 11% from 9.3%. This shift suggests that borrowers are increasingly seeking alternative sources of funding to meet their financial obligations and operational needs.
Addressing Unemployment and Pending Bills
One of the pressing challenges identified by CS Mbadi is the rising unemployment rate, particularly among the youth entering the job market. He articulated that the government’s commitment to creating job opportunities hinges on increasing liquidity within the economy. To address this, the government has initiated the clearance of pending bills, a move aimed at injecting more funds into the market. “The single biggest challenge we have now is how do we employ our youth, our working class who come out of colleges,” Mbadi said. “This will happen through the deliberate effort of injecting more liquidity into the market, which we have started through the paying off of pending bills.”
The strategy to clear pending bills aligns with broader economic reforms aimed at stabilizing and invigorating the economy. By ensuring that suppliers and contractors receive timely payments, the government hopes to enhance confidence in the market, thereby encouraging further investment and consumption.
Reforms at the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA)
In tandem with efforts to boost liquidity, CS Mbadi has also prioritized reforms at the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA). Since taking office, he has initiated the digitization of KRA operations, a step in line with Kenya’s medium-term economic agenda focusing on fiscal consolidation and broadening the tax base. By modernizing tax collection systems, the government aims to improve efficiency and ensure higher compliance among taxpayers.
“In consultation with the President, we have agreed on a number of reforms at KRA, including system reforms. That is having a system that can help us collect taxes more efficiently and economically,” Mbadi explained. The proposed reforms aim to enhance tax collection across various streams, including Value Added Tax (VAT), personal income tax, and rental income tax.
Currently, the KRA collects approximately Ksh 17 billion in rental income tax, but estimates suggest that the potential revenue could soar to Ksh 100 billion. This stark difference highlights the significant room for improvement in tax collection efficiency, which is critical for funding government initiatives and reducing reliance on debt.
Ensuring Debt Transparency
Another focal point of CS Mbadi’s agenda is ensuring transparency in public debt management. He has engaged the Auditor General to commence an audit of public debt, with the Treasury cooperating fully in providing the necessary documentation. This move is designed to enhance public confidence in the government’s handling of debt and fiscal matters.
In his statement, Mbadi acknowledged the importance of maintaining trust among Kenyans regarding the country’s public debt records. By engaging the Auditor General and ensuring transparency, the government aims to mitigate concerns surrounding national debt levels and bolster investor confidence.
The Road Ahead
As CS Mbadi continues to navigate his responsibilities, the emphasis on reducing interest rates and enhancing liquidity in the market stands out as a critical aspect of his economic strategy. By fostering a conducive environment for private sector lending, the government hopes to stimulate job creation and address the pressing unemployment crisis faced by many Kenyans.
The recent cuts to the CBR and the government’s commitment to clearing pending bills and reforming tax collection processes signal a proactive approach to economic management. However, the success of these measures will largely depend on the responsiveness of financial institutions and the overall economic climate.
In conclusion, CS Mbadi’s vision for a revitalized economy hinges on collaborative efforts between the government, the central bank, and private sector players. By fostering an environment of liquidity, transparency, and efficient tax collection, there is potential for sustainable growth and improved livelihoods for all Kenyans. The coming months will be critical in determining whether these strategies can yield the desired outcomes and set the foundation for long-term economic stability.
