On New Year’s Day, a significant shift occurred in Moldova as the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine ceased, marking a major energy crisis for the country. Kyiv’s decision to halt the transit of Russian gas fueled by its refusal to extend a deal with Gazprom has not only impacted Ukraine but is sending shockwaves through neighboring Moldova, a country already facing economic and political instability.
The immediate effects have been felt most acutely in Transnistria, a separatist region in eastern Moldova that remains loyal to Moscow. In Transnistria, where the economy is entirely dependent on Russian gas, a harsh reality is setting in: only essential infrastructure such as hospitals are being heated, leaving ordinary residents to endure cold conditions. Dmitry, a local resident in the enclave, shared his experience with the BBC, noting how hot water was only available until 2 am and the radiators were barely warm. “We still have gas, but the pressure is very low just what’s left in the pipes,” he said.
This disruption in the gas supply comes after years of dependence on Russia, with Transnistria’s leaders refusing to pay for the gas they receive. However, the abrupt end of the gas flow has left many scrambling for alternative sources of heat. Authorities have set up “heating points” and provided hotlines for firewood assistance, while families have been advised to gather in one room to conserve warmth and seal cracks with blankets.
In Moldova itself, the situation is dire, though less extreme. The Moldovan government has announced that it has enough gas to last until spring, and plans to purchase electricity from Europe, which will result in significant cost increases. Already, the country has imposed a state of emergency, urging citizens and businesses to reduce energy consumption in anticipation of potential power cuts.
While Moldova tries to manage, it faces more than just an energy crisis. The halt in gas supply is seen by many as a political maneuver by Russia, intended to destabilize Moldova both economically and socially. Moldova has been increasingly pro-European, seeking EU membership and distancing itself from Russian influence since the onset of the war in Ukraine. This energy crisis is being framed as part of a broader effort by Russia to disrupt Moldova’s political landscape, ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections.
Jakub Pieńkowski, an analyst with the Polish Institute of International Affairs, suggested that Russia’s manipulation of Moldova’s energy situation is a calculated move to stoke anger among the population, particularly with soaring electricity prices. “Electricity prices have already risen about six times in three years, and people are angry,” Pieńkowski remarked.
With the economic pressures mounting, Moldova’s future seems uncertain. As the humanitarian situation worsens in Transnistria, Moldova will likely face increasing demands to resolve the crisis, potentially strengthening pro-Russian political forces in the upcoming elections. For now, the Moldovan government is caught in a delicate balance between managing an energy crisis and navigating the geopolitical interests that threaten its sovereignty.
