Mozambique, one of the poorest nations in the world, is at a critical juncture as millions of its citizens head to the polls to elect a new president, governors, and members of parliament. The elections, scheduled for Wednesday, come at a time when the country is grappling with several crises, including jihadist violence that has stalled its much-anticipated natural gas projects, which were seen as a potential game-changer for its stagnant economy. The discovery of vast offshore gas deposits in the north in 2010 had raised hopes of economic transformation, but ongoing violence linked to the Islamic State in the northernmost Cabo Delgado province has crippled these projects since 2021. As 17 million registered voters head to the polls, the nation’s future hangs in the balance.
Mozambique’s Election: High Stakes Amid Growing Tensions
The elections in Mozambique come at a tense time, as the nation is weighed down by a myriad of challenges, including terrorism, poverty, and questions surrounding electoral integrity. Voters are casting their ballots in what is expected to be a closely-watched election, not only because of the national security concerns but also due to the historical dominance of the ruling party, Frelimo (the Mozambique Liberation Front), which has held power since independence from Portugal in 1975.
Frelimo is expected to retain its grip on power, despite growing disillusionment among the electorate. Its relatively unknown candidate, Daniel Chapo, 47, a provincial governor, will replace the outgoing president, Filipe Nyusi, who is stepping down after two constitutionally mandated terms. Chapo is competing against three other presidential candidates, but the race is far from predictable, with concerns over electoral manipulation and widespread disenfranchisement looming large.
Daniel Chapo: Frelimo’s Strategy for Continuity
The decision by Frelimo to field Daniel Chapo, a relatively low-profile candidate, has sparked considerable debate. At 47, Chapo represents a generational shift in Mozambican politics, being the first presidential candidate born after the country gained independence. If elected, he would also be the first Mozambican president who did not participate in the country’s civil war, a brutal conflict fought between Frelimo and the main opposition party, Renamo (Mozambican National Resistance), from 1975 to 1992.
Chapo’s candidacy is seen by some analysts as part of a broader strategy by Frelimo’s leadership to exert influence over the future direction of the party. Some experts, such as Borges Nhamirre from the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, argue that the choice of Chapo, who is largely considered inexperienced, allows the party’s elite to control key government appointments more easily. “Frelimo’s decision to pick the relatively inexperienced Chapo could be a strategy to influence his choice of appointees to key government positions,” says Nhamirre.
Chapo has promised to tackle one of the country’s most pressing concerns: the jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado, which has claimed thousands of lives and displaced hundreds of thousands since it began in 2017. At a final campaign rally, he stated, “We will continue to work so Mozambique stays a country of peace, including in Cabo Delgado. We want to continue fighting against terrorism.” However, many are skeptical of Frelimo’s ability to deliver on these promises, as violence continues to grip the gas-rich region.
The Opposition: Diverse Voices, One Challenge
Facing Chapo are three challengers who each bring a distinct vision for Mozambique. Ossufo Momade, 63, the leader of Renamo, is seen as Chapo’s main rival. Momade has a long history in Mozambican politics, having been a member of parliament and the leader of the opposition since 2018. Renamo, which fought a bitter civil war against Frelimo, has struggled to shake off its violent past but remains a significant force in Mozambican politics. Momade’s campaign is built on addressing the widespread corruption and disillusionment that many feel after nearly five decades of Frelimo rule.
Another opposition candidate, Venancio Mondlane, 50, offers a more dynamic and youth-oriented approach. Mondlane previously ran for mayor of the capital, Maputo, in 2023 under Renamo’s banner but lost amidst claims of electoral fraud. His popularity, particularly among younger voters, is notable, and his decision to leave Renamo and join the smaller Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos) earlier this year is seen as an attempt to capitalize on the growing demand for change. Mondlane’s charisma and focus on fighting corruption have resonated with many, particularly those who feel alienated by the traditional political parties.
The final candidate, Lutero Simango, 64, leads the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), a center-right party that has positioned itself as a strong critic of Frelimo’s governance. Simango has been outspoken in his attacks on Frelimo, calling the party’s leaders “thieves dressed in red,” a reference to the party’s signature color. Simango’s focus on restoring integrity to Mozambique’s political institutions and fighting poverty has garnered him a following, but he faces an uphill battle against the better-funded and more entrenched Frelimo machine.
A Legacy of Electoral Fraud and Manipulation
One of the most significant issues hanging over the election is the integrity of the electoral process itself. Mozambique has a long history of disputed elections, with claims of fraud and manipulation surfacing after nearly every vote. The 2019 elections, in which Frelimo won 73 percent of the vote, were marred by allegations of widespread fraud, and opposition parties rejected the results. More recently, the 2023 municipal elections were widely seen as fraudulent, leading to protests across the country. The protests turned deadly when police opened fire on demonstrators, killing several people, an act described as an “accident” by authorities.
There are growing concerns that the 2024 elections could follow a similar path. Political analysts, such as Domingos Do Rosario from Eduardo Mondlane University in Maputo, have expressed deep skepticism about the fairness of the vote. “The electoral commission is a joke,” says Do Rosario. “It manufactures voters.” He adds that the commission’s claim to have registered 17 million voters, out of a largely youthful population of 33 million, is difficult to believe given the country’s weak institutions and history of political bargaining.
Borges Nhamirre echoes these concerns, warning that the integrity of the electoral process is severely compromised. According to Nhamirre, the combination of weak institutions, political manipulation, and voter disenfranchisement means that the outcome of the election is already in doubt.
Mozambique’s Economic and Social Challenges
While the election has dominated headlines, Mozambique’s broader challenges continue to weigh heavily on the population. The African Development Bank estimates that 74.5 percent of Mozambique’s 33 million people lived in poverty in 2023, with the country regularly battered by cyclones, droughts, and other environmental disasters. The much-anticipated natural gas projects in the north, which were supposed to transform the country’s economic fortunes, have been stalled for years due to the Islamist insurgency.
The violence in Cabo Delgado has displaced more than one million people, and while international efforts, including military support from countries such as Rwanda and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), have made some progress in curbing the violence, the region remains unstable. The security situation, combined with the deep poverty and the lack of economic opportunities, has left many Mozambicans disillusioned with the political process.
Conclusion: A Nation in Crisis, an Election Full of Uncertainty
As Mozambique prepares to elect a new president, the nation stands at a crossroads. With a violent insurgency in the north, widespread poverty, and deep political divisions, the challenges facing the next president are immense. Whether Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo, Renamo’s Ossufo Momade, Venancio Mondlane, or Lutero Simango wins, the task of leading Mozambique out of its current crisis will require more than just promises on the campaign trail.
However, with widespread concerns about the integrity of the election process, it remains to be seen whether the will of the people will truly be reflected in the results. For now, Mozambicans can only hope that their voices will be heard and that their country will move toward a more stable and prosperous future.
